Atlante U21 v UNAM Pumas U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 00:00

Atlante U21 0–2 UNAM Pumas U21 ATLANTE U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlante U21 win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlante U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlante U21 42%, draw 26%, UNAM Pumas U21 32%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Atlante U21 v UNAM Pumas U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Atlante U21 win42%

Draw26%

UNAM Pumas U21 win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlante U21

UNAM Pumas U21

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Atlante U21	11	−5	15
13	UNAM Pumas U21	11	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlante u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Atlante U21 a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlante U21 v UNAM Pumas U21~~1.55 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~11 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlante U21 win

Published at 39%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlante U21 win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
UNAM Pumas U21 win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Atlante U21 or draw	68%	–	–
Atlante U21 clean sheet	27%	–	–
UNAM Pumas U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.7 6.7 5.0 2.2 1 7.9 12.4 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.5 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlante U21 down, UNAM Pumas U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 432 Liga MX U21 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atlante U21 at home: 1.40 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). UNAM Pumas U21 away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Atlante U21, 1.33 for UNAM Pumas U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug

ATLANTE U21

LLDDWW0–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 5–4 · 3–2

UNAM PUMAS U21

LDDWDW1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+13	31
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18
6	Atl. San Luis U21	11	−1	18
7	Necaxa U21	11	−3	18
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	Juarez U21	11	−1	16
11	Atlante U21	11	−5	15
12	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
13	UNAM Pumas U21	11	−2	13
14	Santos Laguna U21	11	−4	13
15	Atlas U21	11	−1	10
16	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6