Atlante U21 v Atl. San Luis U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Atlante U21 3–2 Atl. San Luis U21 ATLANTE U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlante U21 win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.425

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–2, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlante U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlante U21 47%, draw 25%, Atl. San Luis U21 28%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Atlante U21 v Atl. San Luis U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atlante U21 win47%

Draw25%

Atl. San Luis U21 win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlante U21

Atl. San Luis U21

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Atl. San Luis U21	13	−3	21
11	Atlante U21	13	−5	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlante u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Atlante U21 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlante U21 v Atl. San Luis U21~~1.81 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlante U21 win

Published at 42%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlante U21 win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Atl. San Luis U21 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Atlante U21 or draw	72%	–	–
Atlante U21 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Atl. San Luis U21 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 4.7 3.9 1 6.5 11.2 7.0 3.2 2 6.8 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.1 5.6 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlante U21 down, Atl. San Luis U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 450 Liga MX U21 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atlante U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atl. San Luis U21 away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Atlante U21, 1.37 for Atl. San Luis U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 Sept

ATLANTE U21

DDWWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 5–4 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

ATL. SAN LUIS U21

LWDDLW2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	13	+21	37
2	Club Leon U21	13	+10	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	0	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	13	−3	21
6	Necaxa U21	13	−3	21
7	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
8	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
9	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
10	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
11	Atlante U21	13	−5	18
12	Monterrey U21	12	+2	16
13	UNAM Pumas U21	13	−1	16
14	Juarez U21	13	−4	16
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6