Atl. San Luis U21 v Santos Laguna U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

After 90 minutesGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21 ATL. SAN LUIS U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atl. San Luis U21 win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. Atl. San Luis U21 won 6–5 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atl. San Luis U21 win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Atl. San Luis U21 v Santos Laguna U21
3′Little has changed for our model: Atl. San Luis U21 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
7′Little has changed for our model: Atl. San Luis U21 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–31
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Atl. San Luis U21 1–0 Santos Laguna U21
23′Atl. San Luis U21 find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–10
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Atl. San Luis U21 win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Atl. San Luis U21 win: 42% at kick-off, 43% now
24′Atl. San Luis U21 find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–10
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atl. San Luis U21 win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Atl. San Luis U21 1–0 Santos Laguna U21
46′SECOND HALF Atl. San Luis U21 1–0 Santos Laguna U21
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Atl. San Luis U21 1–1 Santos Laguna U21
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Atl. San Luis U21 2–1 Santos Laguna U21
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atl. San Luis U21 2–3 Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 121' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 122' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′PENALTY MISSED · 123' Atl. San Luis U21
85′PENALTY MISSED · 123' Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 124' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 125' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 126' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′⚽ GOAL · 127' Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
85′PENALTY MISSED · 127' Santos Laguna U21
FTFULL TIME Atl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21
FTAtl. San Luis U21 2–2 Santos Laguna U21 after 90 minutes, as graded · Atl. San Luis U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atl. San Luis U21 win42%

Draw27%

Santos Laguna U21 win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atl. San Luis U21

Santos Laguna U21

14Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
15	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atl. san luis u21 winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Atl. San Luis U21 a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atl. San Luis U21 win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Santos Laguna U21 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Atl. San Luis U21 or draw	70%	–	–
Atl. San Luis U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Santos Laguna U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.7 7.0 5.0 2.1 1 8.7 13.0 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atl. San Luis U21 down, Santos Laguna U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 429 Liga MX U21 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atl. San Luis U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Santos Laguna U21 away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Atl. San Luis U21, 1.23 for Santos Laguna U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–2 SAN · SAN 3–1 ATL

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

ATL. SAN LUIS U21

DLLLWD0–0 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

SANTOS LAGUNA U21

DWLDLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+11	27
2	Club Leon U21	11	+8	24
3	Club Tijuana U21	11	+5	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	16
6	Puebla U21	11	+3	15
7	Atlante U21	11	−4	14
8	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
9	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
10	Atlas U21	11	+1	12
11	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
12	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
13	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
14	Juarez U21	11	−3	11
15	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
16	Tigres UANL U21	11	−9	9
17	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6