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Model 1.2

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Toluca W v Santos Laguna W

Toluca W
0–0Full time
Santos Laguna W

Liga MX Femenil · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:35
Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W TOLUCA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Toluca W win78%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.364
The market’s Brier score1.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Toluca W win at 78%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Toluca W 78% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 77–13–9
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Toluca W v Santos Laguna W
  4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 68% now
  5. 37′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 0–0 · 66–22–11
  6. 41′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–24–12
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Toluca W · On: A. Henry · Off: Y. Franco
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
  10. 50′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–12
  11. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 58% now
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 56–32–12
  13. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Santos Laguna W · On: Y. Novella · Off: D. Rodriguez
  14. 58′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–12
  15. 63′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–39–11
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
  17. 68′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–45–11
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Toluca W · On: S. Jakobsson · Off: D. Blackwood
  19. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Toluca W win 45%)
  20. 72′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
  21. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
  22. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Santos Laguna W · On: L. M. Romero Torres · Off: N. Diaz
  23. 77′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–60–8
  24. 79′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–65–8
  25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
  26. 81′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–7
  27. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca W · On: V. Lopez · Off: K. Veje
  28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca W · On: K. Fernandez · Off: B. Cuevas
  29. 84′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–78–5
  30. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 17% now
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Santos Laguna W · On: A. Arias · Off: I. A. Gonzalez Rendon
  32. 87′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–83–4
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Toluca W · On: S. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro · Off: F. Robert
  34. 90′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
  35. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 8% now
  36. 94′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–96–1
  37. FTFULL TIME Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
  38. FTToluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W · Toluca W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Toluca W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Toluca W 78%, draw 13%, Santos Laguna W 9%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Toluca W v Santos Laguna WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Toluca W win78%
Draw13%
Santos Laguna W win9%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeC. Sanchez

Line-ups

Toluca W

Santos Laguna W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toluca W

Santos Laguna W

15Days since last match18

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Toluca W10+922
9Santos Laguna W10−715

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Toluca W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Lozoya

4 Y. Rodriguez Perez

2 K. Martinez

16 L. Fernandez

24 K. Veje

22 S. Vazquez

5 Y. Franco

25 F. Robert

10 B. Cuevas

14 D. Blackwood

9 E. Le Sommer

Coach · Edgar Duenas

Substitutes

31 · S. Jimenez

13 · V. Lopez

23 · B. Diaz

28 · S. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro

15 · M. Ramirez

8 · K. Fernandez

6 · A. Henry

17 · S. Jakobsson

7 · D. Espinosa

Santos Laguna W

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Mendoza

21 F. Soto

29 G. Lopez

4 L. Vaka

3 S. Pickard

14 A. Dorantes

10 K. Rodriguez

7 D. Rodriguez

24 I. A. Gonzalez Rendon

25 N. Diaz

9 S. Calvillo

Coach · Jhonathan Lazcano

Substitutes

23 · T. Rivas

11 · K. De Leon

6 · H. Ibarra

5 · Y. Novella

16 · C. Guevara Ortega

20 · L. M. Romero Torres

26 · A. Arias

Our number · toluca w winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
78% The market74%
Us78%
Market74%

We make Toluca W a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Toluca W v Santos Laguna W2.99 – 0.94
Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 AugW4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 22 v 155 v 9
The market · Toluca W win74% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 14 OCT 04:4520 OCT 00:39
Our probability · Toluca W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Toluca W win78%74%+4
Draw13%15%−2
Santos Laguna W win9%11%−2
Over 2.5 goals74%71%+3
Both teams to score57%56%+1
Over 1.5 goals90%86%+4
Over 3.5 goals55%51%+4
Toluca W or draw91%89%+2
Toluca W clean sheet40%––
Santos Laguna W clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.8%
0123450 2.2 1 6.1 5.7 2.7 2 8.8 8.1 3.8 3 8.5 7.8 3.7 4 6.4 5.8 2.7 5 3.9 3.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Toluca W down, Santos Laguna W across0–5 goals a side shown (90.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsSAN 0–1 TOL · TOL 1–0 SAN · TOL 2–1 SAN · SAN 0–2 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug

TOLUCA W

WLWLWW1–0 · 1–5 · 6–0 · 2–7 · 4–0 · 2–1

SANTOS LAGUNA W

WLWWLW1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Monterrey W11+2730
2América W11+3528
3Tigres UANL W11+2428
4Juárez W11+824
5Toluca W10+922
6Guadalajara W10+1021
7Atlético San Luis W11+619
8Pumas UNAM W11+216
9Santos Laguna W10−715
10Cruz Azul W11−915
11León W9−212
12Atlas W10−812
13Pachuca W11−210
14Tijuana W11−1110
15Atlante W10−77
16Querétaro W11−146
17Puebla W11−264
18Necaxa W10−350

The competition's standings before kick-off.