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Toluca W v Santos Laguna W
Toluca W
Santos Laguna WLiga MX Femenil · TUE 20 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Toluca W win at 78%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Toluca W 78% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 77–13–9
- 1′KICK-OFF Toluca W v Santos Laguna W
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 68% now
- 37′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 0–0 · 66–22–11
- 41′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–24–12
- 45′HALF-TIME Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Toluca W · On: A. Henry · Off: Y. Franco
- 46′SECOND HALF Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
- 50′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–12
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 58% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 56–32–12
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Santos Laguna W · On: Y. Novella · Off: D. Rodriguez
- 58′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–12
- 63′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–39–11
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
- 68′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–45–11
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Toluca W · On: S. Jakobsson · Off: D. Blackwood
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Toluca W win 45%)
- 72′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Santos Laguna W · On: L. M. Romero Torres · Off: N. Diaz
- 77′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–60–8
- 79′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–65–8
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
- 81′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–7
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca W · On: V. Lopez · Off: K. Veje
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca W · On: K. Fernandez · Off: B. Cuevas
- 84′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–78–5
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 17% now
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Santos Laguna W · On: A. Arias · Off: I. A. Gonzalez Rendon
- 87′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–83–4
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Toluca W · On: S. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro · Off: F. Robert
- 90′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Toluca W win: 78% at kick-off, 8% now
- 94′We said Toluca W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–96–1
- FTFULL TIME Toluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W
- FTToluca W 0–0 Santos Laguna W · Toluca W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Toluca W are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Toluca W 78%, draw 13%, Santos Laguna W 9%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Toluca W win78%
Santos Laguna W win9%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 01:00
RoundMatchday 11
RefereeC. Sanchez
Match timeline
All events
Toluca WMIN
Santos Laguna WEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Toluca W
Santos Laguna W
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Toluca W
Santos Laguna W
Last match: 5 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Toluca W
Formation not confirmed
1 C. Lozoya
4 Y. Rodriguez Perez
2 K. Martinez
16 L. Fernandez
24 K. Veje
22 S. Vazquez
5 Y. Franco
25 F. Robert
10 B. Cuevas
14 D. Blackwood
9 E. Le Sommer
Coach · Edgar Duenas
Substitutes
31 · S. Jimenez
13 · V. Lopez
23 · B. Diaz
28 · S. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro
15 · M. Ramirez
8 · K. Fernandez
6 · A. Henry
17 · S. Jakobsson
7 · D. Espinosa
Santos Laguna W
Formation not confirmed
1 K. Mendoza
21 F. Soto
29 G. Lopez
4 L. Vaka
3 S. Pickard
14 A. Dorantes
10 K. Rodriguez
7 D. Rodriguez
24 I. A. Gonzalez Rendon
25 N. Diaz
9 S. Calvillo
Coach · Jhonathan Lazcano
Substitutes
23 · T. Rivas
11 · K. De Leon
6 · H. Ibarra
5 · Y. Novella
16 · C. Guevara Ortega
20 · L. M. Romero Torres
26 · A. Arias
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Toluca W
Formation not confirmed
1 C. Lozoya
4 Y. Rodriguez Perez
2 K. Martinez
16 L. Fernandez
24 K. Veje
22 S. Vazquez
5 Y. Franco
25 F. Robert
10 B. Cuevas
14 D. Blackwood
9 E. Le Sommer
Coach · Edgar Duenas
Substitutes
31 · S. Jimenez
13 · V. Lopez
23 · B. Diaz
28 · S. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro
15 · M. Ramirez
8 · K. Fernandez
6 · A. Henry
17 · S. Jakobsson
7 · D. Espinosa
Santos Laguna W
Formation not confirmed
1 K. Mendoza
21 F. Soto
29 G. Lopez
4 L. Vaka
3 S. Pickard
14 A. Dorantes
10 K. Rodriguez
7 D. Rodriguez
24 I. A. Gonzalez Rendon
25 N. Diaz
9 S. Calvillo
Coach · Jhonathan Lazcano
Substitutes
23 · T. Rivas
11 · K. De Leon
6 · H. Ibarra
5 · Y. Novella
16 · C. Guevara Ortega
20 · L. M. Romero Torres
26 · A. Arias
We make Toluca W a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca W win | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | −2 |
| Santos Laguna W win | 9% | 11% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 86% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Toluca W or draw | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Toluca W clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Santos Laguna W clean sheet | 6% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug
TOLUCA W
SANTOS LAGUNA W
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | +35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | +24 | 28 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna W | 10 | −7 | 15 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | −9 | 15 |
| 11 | León W | 9 | −2 | 12 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 10 | −8 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca W | 11 | −2 | 10 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 11 | −11 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 10 | −7 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | −14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | −26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 10 | −35 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Monterrey W
América W
Tigres UANL W
Juárez W
Guadalajara W
Atlético San Luis W
Pumas UNAM W
Cruz Azul W
León W
Atlas W
Pachuca W
Tijuana W
Atlante W
Querétaro W
Puebla W
Necaxa W