Tijuana W v Cruz Azul W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tijuana WDrawCruz Azul W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cruz Azul W 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cruz Azul W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tijuana W 37%, draw 23%, Cruz Azul W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Tijuana W v Cruz Azul WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Tijuana W win37%

Draw23%

Cruz Azul W win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueEstadio Caliente

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tijuana W

Cruz Azul W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cruz Azul W	12	−10	15
14	Tijuana W	12	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cruz azul w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Cruz Azul W a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tijuana W v Cruz Azul W~~1.59 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~14 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tijuana W win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Cruz Azul W win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Tijuana W or draw	61%	–	–
Tijuana W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Cruz Azul W clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 6.4 5.4 3.0 1 6.2 10.4 8.2 4.5 2 5.0 8.0 6.5 3.6 3 2.7 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tijuana W down, Cruz Azul W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,772 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tijuana W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul W away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Tijuana W, 1.65 for Cruz Azul W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIJ 1–1 CRU · CRU 4–3 TIJ · CRU 1–1 TIJ · TIJ 3–0 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 12 Sept

TIJUANA W

LLLWDD0–6 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

CRUZ AZUL W

WLLWLL3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	América W	12	+42	31
2	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Juárez W	12	+9	27
5	Toluca W	12	+10	26
6	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
7	Atlético San Luis W	12	−1	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	12	−10	15
12	Pachuca W	12	+3	13
13	Atlas W	11	−8	13
14	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	12	−15	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	12	−47	0