Tigres UANL W v Querétaro W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 04:05

Tigres UANL W 2–0 Querétaro W TIGRES UANL W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigres UANL W win~~93%

~~The market said~~89%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.008

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.017

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigres UANL W win at 93%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tigres UANL W 93% before kick-off, 93% now. 0–0 · 93–5–2
1′KICK-OFF Tigres UANL W v Querétaro W
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Tigres UANL W win: 93% at kick-off, 83% now
39′39′: A. Esquivel on the scoresheet for Tigres UANL W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Tigres UANL W 1–0 Querétaro W · A. Esquivel
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Tigres UANL W win: 93% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Tigres UANL W 1–0 Querétaro W
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' M. Delgadillo · Tigres UANL W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Querétaro W · On: A. Gonzalez · Off: S. Martinez
46′SECOND HALF Tigres UANL W 1–0 Querétaro W
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Querétaro W · On: S. Cecena · Off: G. Grant
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Querétaro W · On: M. Jimenez · Off: N. Grimaldo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tigres UANL W · On: T. Kgatlana · Off: M. Delgadillo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tigres UANL W · On: G. Asantewaa · Off: A. Esquivel
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' F. Barone · Querétaro W
72′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tigres UANL W · On: Grace Asantewaa · Off: Alison Esquivel Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tigres UANL W · On: S. Enciso · Off: A. Rodriguez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tigres UANL W · On: D. Ramirez · Off: Jheniffer
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tigres UANL W · On: S. Duah · Off: M. Villalpando
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' A. Lopez · Querétaro W
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Querétaro W · On: E. Carmona · Off: A. Lopez
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Querétaro W · On: C. Vite · Off: J. Bailey
96′Tigres UANL W ahead on 90′ through D. Ramirez. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Tigres UANL W 2–0 Querétaro W · D. Ramirez
FTFULL TIME Tigres UANL W 2–0 Querétaro W
FTTigres UANL W 2–0 Querétaro W · Tigres UANL W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tigres UANL W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigres UANL W 93%, draw 5%, Querétaro W 2%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Tigres UANL W v Querétaro WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Tigres UANL W win93%

Draw5%

Querétaro W win2%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 01:06

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Universitario

RefereeD. Lomeli

Line-ups

Tigres UANL W

Querétaro W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigres UANL W

Querétaro W

16Days since last match16

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL W

Formation not confirmed

23 I. Gonzalez

22 A. Rodriguez

20 Mariza

6 J. Lopez

3 M. Villalpando

8 A. Delgado

14 M. Delgadillo

9 S. Mayor

30 A. Esquivel

7 M. Sanchez

11 Jheniffer

Coach · Pedro Martinez

Substitutes

1 · A. Santiago

33 · H. De Avila

18 · S. Duah

17 · S. Enciso

32 · N. Munoz

2 · M. Gonzalez

63 · A. Salas

5 · G. Asantewaa

16 · T. Kgatlana

34 · D. Ramirez

Querétaro W

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Morales

2 S. Martinez

3 M. Limon

16 A. George

6 F. Barone

4 F. Rosales Miranda

11 N. Grimaldo

25 J. Bailey

7 D. Heredia-Beltran

5 A. Lopez

18 G. Grant

Coach · Pamela Conti

Substitutes

20 · X. Diaz

22 · E. Carmona

23 · A. Gonzalez

30 · L. Espinosa

21 · J. Plata

13 · C. Vite

8 · M. Jimenez

9 · S. Cecena

Our number · tigres uanl w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

93% The market89%

Us93%

~~Market~~89%

We make Tigres UANL W a 93% chance to win. The market has them at 89%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.1–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigres UANL W v Querétaro W~~4.08 – 0.48

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 25 v 6~~3 v 16

~~The market · Tigres UANL W win~~89% · ours 93%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tigres UANL W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 89% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL W win	93%	89%	+4
Draw	5%	7%	−2
Querétaro W win	2%	3%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	93%	92%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Tigres UANL W or draw	98%	97%	+1
Tigres UANL W clean sheet	62%	–	–
Querétaro W clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.4%

0123450 1 4.9 2.4 2 9.0 4.5 3 11.4 5.5 4 11.2 5.3 5 9.1 4.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL W down, Querétaro W across0–5 goals a side shown (76.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,762 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL W at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Querétaro W away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.08 goals for Tigres UANL W, 0.48 for Querétaro W. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIG 6–0 QUE · QUE 0–7 TIG · QUE 1–1 TIG · TIG 5–3 QUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug

TIGRES UANL W

WWLWDW2–0 · 3–0 · 2–5 · 7–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

QUERÉTARO W

LLWLLL0–4 · 0–2 · 6–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	10	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19
8	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
9	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	+1	13
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	9	−7	12
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0