Tigres UANL W v Monterrey W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tigres UANL WDrawMonterrey W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:06

Before kick-off · Match result · Tigres UANL W 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tigres UANL W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigres UANL W 53%, draw 23%, Monterrey W 24%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Tigres UANL W v Monterrey WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tigres UANL W win53%

Draw23%

Monterrey W win24%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 00:06

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Universitario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigres UANL W

Monterrey W

7Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tigres uanl w winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market45%

Us53%

~~Market~~45%

We make Tigres UANL W a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigres UANL W v Monterrey W~~1.82 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 28 v 30~~3 v 1

~~The market · Tigres UANL W win~~45% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tigres UANL W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL W win	53%	45%	+8
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Monterrey W win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Tigres UANL W or draw	76%	71%	+5
Tigres UANL W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Monterrey W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 5.9 3.4 1 9.5 10.8 6.0 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL W down, Monterrey W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,769 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL W at home: 2.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Monterrey W away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Tigres UANL W, 1.13 for Monterrey W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–3 TIG · TIG 4–0 MON · MON 1–1 TIG · TIG 1–1 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept

TIGRES UANL W

WLWDWW3–0 · 2–5 · 7–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

MONTERREY W

WWWWWW5–1 · 3–2 · 10–0 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0