Santos Laguna W v León W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santos Laguna WDrawLeón W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:06

Before kick-off · Match result · León W 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

León W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos Laguna W 29%, draw 24%, León W 47%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Santos Laguna W v León WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Santos Laguna W win29%

Draw24%

León W win47%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 01:06

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Corona

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos Laguna W

León W

7Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · león w winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make León W a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos Laguna W v León W~~1.30 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 7 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos Laguna W win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
León W win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Santos Laguna W or draw	53%	–	–
Santos Laguna W clean sheet	18%	–	–
León W clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.3 8.3 7.2 4.2 1 6.2 10.8 9.1 5.3 2.4 2 4.1 6.9 5.9 3.4 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos Laguna W down, León W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,769 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos Laguna W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). León W away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Santos Laguna W, 1.74 for León W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 LEO · LEO 5–0 SAN · LEO 3–1 SAN · SAN 5–0 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 7 Sept

SANTOS LAGUNA W

LWWLWD0–3 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–0

LEÓN W

WWLLWD5–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0