Pumas UNAM W v Atlas W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Pumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W PUMAS UNAM W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pumas UNAM W win~~57%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.275

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pumas UNAM W win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pumas UNAM W was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF Pumas UNAM W v Atlas W
19′18′: S. Ribeiro on the scoresheet for Pumas UNAM W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Pumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W · S. Ribeiro
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Pumas UNAM W win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
20′We published Pumas UNAM W at 57%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
37′PENALTY MISSED · 36' A. Martinez · Atlas W
45′HALF-TIME Pumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atlas W · On: S. Stephens · Off: A. Martinez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atlas W · On: V. Acevedo · Off: A. Lopez
46′SECOND HALF Pumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' F. Delgado · Atlas W
53′We published Pumas UNAM W at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' A. Guerrero · Pumas UNAM W
60′A red card for Atlas W on 59′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 81–15–4
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' F. Delgado · Atlas W
60′🟥 RED CARD · 59' F. Delgado · Atlas W
62′Atlas W are down to nine from 60′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 81–15–3
62′🟥 RED CARD · 60' J. Alfaro · Atlas W
64′🟨 YELLOW · 60' J. Alfaro · Atlas W
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlas W · On: E. Vlassopoulos · Off: S. Munoz
72′We published Pumas UNAM W at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pumas UNAM W · On: M. Hernandez · Off: A. Hix
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pumas UNAM W · On: P. Chavero · Off: A. Guerrero
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' E. Vlassopoulos · Atlas W
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlas W · On: C. Ramirez · Off: K. Flores
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Pumas UNAM W win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pumas UNAM W · On: E. Gielnik · Off: S. Ribeiro
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pumas UNAM W · On: E. Sainz · Off: C. Torres
80′We published Pumas UNAM W at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' E. Gielnik · Pumas UNAM W
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atlas W · On: M. Maldonado · Off: V. Penuna
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' B. Quintos · Atlas W
87′We published Pumas UNAM W at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Pumas UNAM W win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' C. Montero · Pumas UNAM W
FTFULL TIME Pumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W
FTPumas UNAM W 1–0 Atlas W · Pumas UNAM W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pumas UNAM W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pumas UNAM W 57%, draw 21%, Atlas W 22%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Pumas UNAM W v Atlas WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pumas UNAM W win57%

Draw21%

Atlas W win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeF. Portillo

Line-ups

Pumas UNAM W

Atlas W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pumas UNAM W

Atlas W

15Days since last match22

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 26 Sept · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	+1	13
12	Atlas W	9	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pumas UNAM W

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Toledo

16 A. Guerrero

3 A. Mendoza

17 P. Boakye

5 X. Rios

31 C. Montero

26 A. Huerta

9 P. Chinchilla

12 A. Hix

10 C. Torres

7 S. Ribeiro

Coach · Gerardo Medina Arellano Roberto

Substitutes

20 · J. Lopez

4 · E. Sainz

2 · K. Ramirez

11 · M. Hernandez

68 · K. Cortes

15 · E. Gielnik

13 · P. Chavero

Atlas W

Formation not confirmed

12 C. Vazquez

22 F. Delgado

3 L. Saravia

5 V. Delgado

28 B. Quintos

23 V. Penuna

7 K. Flores

17 A. Lopez

9 N. Villalobos

29 A. Martinez

11 S. Munoz

Coach · Juan Alfaro

Substitutes

1 · K. Contreras

6 · V. Acevedo

26 · S. Stephens

13 · M. Maldonado

20 · E. Vlassopoulos

19 · K. Lopez

14 · C. Ramirez

Our number · pumas unam w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market77%

Us57%

~~Market~~77%

We make Pumas UNAM W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pumas UNAM W v Atlas W~~2.12 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~10 v 12

~~The market · Pumas UNAM W win~~77% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pumas UNAM W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pumas UNAM W win	57%	77%	−20
Draw	21%	15%	+6
Atlas W win	22%	8%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	51%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Pumas UNAM W or draw	78%	92%	−14
Pumas UNAM W clean sheet	29%	–	–
Atlas W clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 4.3 2.7 1 7.4 9.2 5.6 2.3 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 5.5 6.6 4.1 4 3.0 3.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pumas UNAM W down, Atlas W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pumas UNAM W at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atlas W away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Pumas UNAM W, 1.24 for Atlas W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 4–1 PUM · PUM 3–4 ATL · ATL 0–1 PUM · PUM 4–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 25 Aug

PUMAS UNAM W

WLLWDL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

ATLAS W

WLLWDW2–0 · 1–6 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	10	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19
8	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
9	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	+1	13
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	9	−7	12
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0