Pachuca W v Necaxa W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Pachuca W 5–0 Necaxa W PACHUCA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pachuca W win~~96%

~~The market said~~93%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.003

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.007

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pachuca W win at 96%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pachuca W 96% before kick-off, 96% now. 0–0 · 96–3–1
1′KICK-OFF Pachuca W v Necaxa W
11′11′: N. Nicosia on the scoresheet for Pachuca W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Pachuca W 1–0 Necaxa W · N. Nicosia
32′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Pachuca W · On: Eudimilla · Off: N. Nicosia
45′HALF-TIME Pachuca W 1–0 Necaxa W
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pachuca W 2–0 Necaxa W
51′Pachuca W ahead on 48′ through V. Corral. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Necaxa W · On: A. Y. Navarro Vargas · Off: D. Cortez
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Necaxa W · On: Z. Cervantes · Off: B. Johnson
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pachuca W · On: P. Garcia · Off: M. Vance
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Necaxa W · On: A. Terzian Jensen · Off: D. Ponce
67′V. Corral scores for Pachuca W on 67′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Pachuca W 3–0 Necaxa W · V. Corral (penalty)
68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Necaxa W · On: S. Plascencia · Off: S. Porras
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Necaxa W · On: A. A. De Leon L. · Off: A. Isabel Melendez Villarreal
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pachuca W · On: K. Caicedo · Off: J. Orejel
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pachuca W · On: J. Valdez Hernandez · Off: E. R. Sanchez Stickel
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pachuca W · On: A. Gomez · Off: B. Ibarra
83′82′: Eudimilla on the scoresheet for Pachuca W, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Pachuca W 4–0 Necaxa W · Eudimilla (assist K. Robles)
84′Pachuca W ahead on 83′ through P. Garcia. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Pachuca W 5–0 Necaxa W · P. Garcia (assist Aline Gomes)
85′The goal count is tracking the 5.3 we expected. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pachuca W 5–0 Necaxa W
FTPachuca W 5–0 Necaxa W · Pachuca W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pachuca W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pachuca W 96%, draw 3%, Necaxa W 1%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Pachuca W v Necaxa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pachuca W win96%

Draw3%

Necaxa W win1%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Miguel Hidalgo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pachuca W

Necaxa W

5Days since last match3

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pachuca w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

96% The market93%

Us96%

~~Market~~93%

We make Pachuca W a 96% chance to win. The market has them at 93%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.8–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pachuca W v Necaxa W~~4.82 – 0.49

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 10 v 0~~14 v 18

~~The market · Pachuca W win~~93% · ours 96%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pachuca W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 95%, 96% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 93% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pachuca W win	96%	93%	+3
Draw	3%	5%	−2
Necaxa W win	1%	2%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Both teams to score	38%	20%	+18
Over 1.5 goals	96%	94%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Pachuca W or draw	99%	98%	+1
Pachuca W clean sheet	62%	–	–
Necaxa W clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 10.7%

0123450 1 2.8 2 6.2 3.1 3 9.3 4.6 4 10.7 5.1 5 10.0 4.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Pachuca W down, Necaxa W across0–5 goals a side shown (65.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,769 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pachuca W at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Necaxa W away: 0.33 scored, 4.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.82 goals for Pachuca W, 0.49 for Necaxa W. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEC 0–6 PAC · PAC 5–0 NEC · PAC 1–0 NEC · NEC 0–5 PAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept

PACHUCA W

LLLWLL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

NECAXA W

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–10 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0