Monterrey W v Cruz Azul W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Monterrey W 1–0 Cruz Azul W MONTERREY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monterrey W win~~72%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.116

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monterrey W win at 72%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Monterrey W 72% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–16–12
4′KICK-OFF Monterrey W v Cruz Azul W
8′L. Garcia scores for Monterrey W on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–8–4
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Monterrey W 1–0 Cruz Azul W · L. Garcia
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
9′We said Monterrey W at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–4
34′33′: A. Chavarin on the scoresheet for Monterrey W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
34′We said Monterrey W at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Monterrey W 2–0 Cruz Azul W · A. Chavarin
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 96% now
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Monterrey W
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 86% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Monterrey W 2–0 Cruz Azul W · A. Chavarin
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Monterrey W 2–0 Cruz Azul W
47′SECOND HALF Monterrey W 1–0 Cruz Azul W
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' Monterrey W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 86% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Monterrey W 2–0 Cruz Azul W · A. Chavarin
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Monterrey W win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Cruz Azul W · On: B. Ceren · Off: A. Lomeli
65′PENALTY MISSED · 63' A. Martinez · Cruz Azul W
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Monterrey W · On: S. Martinez · Off: M. Restrepo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Monterrey W · On: L. Bosch · Off: A. Chavarin
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Frias · Cruz Azul W
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Monterrey W · On: L. Thomas · Off: J. Seoposenwe
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Monterrey W · On: D. Monroy · Off: A. Godinez
80′We said Monterrey W at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cruz Azul W · On: B. Cruz · Off: A. Martinez
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Monterrey W · On: A. Fernandez · Off: C. Cazares
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cruz Azul W · On: M. C. Montano Osuna · Off: A. Frias
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' Monterrey W
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cruz Azul W · On: M. Leon · Off: L. Angeles
FTFULL TIME Monterrey W 1–0 Cruz Azul W
FTMonterrey W 1–0 Cruz Azul W · Monterrey W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monterrey W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterrey W 72%, draw 16%, Cruz Azul W 12%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Monterrey W v Cruz Azul WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monterrey W win72%

Draw16%

Cruz Azul W win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCancha El Barrial

Line-ups

Monterrey W

Cruz Azul W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterrey W

Cruz Azul W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monterrey W

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Godinez

14 A. Lua

23 V. del Campo

33 C. Cazares

5 A. Godinez

24 M. Restrepo

22 D. Garcia

12 J. Seoposenwe

30 A. Soto

17 L. Garcia

25 A. Chavarin

Coach · Amandine Miquel

Substitutes

28 · P. Manrique

3 · Daiane

2 · D. Monroy

21 · A. Fernandez

10 · N. Perez

9 · L. Bosch

19 · L. Thomas

15 · S. Simental

6 · S. Martinez

31 · S. Ortiz

Cruz Azul W

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Villeda

28 A. Garcia

4 T. Sanchez

3 H. Ruth

11 D. Mendoza

7 L. Angeles

19 V. Valdez

8 A. Lomeli

5 A. Frias

9 A. Martinez

13 D. Garcia

Coach · Raul Gutierrez

Substitutes

12 · O. Solis

6 · L. Rodriguez

2 · V. Miranda

26 · A. Torres

18 · B. Cruz

20 · B. Ceren

14 · M. Leon

17 · M. C. Montano Osuna

52 · V. Suarez Alonso

Our number · monterrey w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market74%

Us72%

~~Market~~74%

We make Monterrey W a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterrey W v Cruz Azul W~~2.70 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 15~~1 v 9

~~The market · Monterrey W win~~74% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterrey W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterrey W win	72%	74%	−2
Draw	16%	16%	0
Cruz Azul W win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	53%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Monterrey W or draw	88%	90%	−2
Monterrey W clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cruz Azul W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.9%

0123450 2.8 2.6 1 6.8 6.9 3.4 2 8.9 8.8 4.4 3 7.8 7.7 3.9 4 5.3 5.2 2.6 5 3.0 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterrey W down, Cruz Azul W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterrey W at home: 4.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul W away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.70 goals for Monterrey W, 1.01 for Cruz Azul W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 4–0 CRU · CRU 1–1 MON · MON 2–1 CRU · CRU 4–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug

MONTERREY W

WWWWWW4–0 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 10–0 · 2–1 · 4–3

CRUZ AZUL W

LWWLLW0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	10	+26	27
2	América W	10	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19
8	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
9	Cruz Azul W	10	−8	15
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	+1	13
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	9	−7	12
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0