León W v Atlante W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 05:00

León W 2–0 Atlante W LEÓN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said León W win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said León W win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: León W was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF León W v Atlante W
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' León W win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
39′PENALTY MISSED · 39' V. Bolanos · León W
43′We said León W at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
45′We said León W at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–19
45′HALF-TIME León W 0–0 Atlante W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' León W · On: Y. Barrientos · Off: V. Bolanos
46′SECOND HALF León W 0–0 Atlante W
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' A. Lozada · León W
53′We published León W at 57%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–3
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' León W 1–0 Atlante W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' León W win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
54′52′: V. Razo on the scoresheet for León W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
54′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Nayely Bolaños · León W
64′We published León W at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Atlante W · On: C. McDaniel · Off: A. Kirnos
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' S. Lemos · León W
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' León W · On: M. Garcia · Off: S. Cortes Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Atlante W · On: V. Gonzalez · Off: E. Estrada
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' León W win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
77′We published León W at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlante W · On: S. S. Gomez Mejia · Off: C. Herrera
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlante W · On: R. Walker · Off: A. Villanueva
83′León W ahead on 83′ through K. Jasso. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' León W · On: K. Jasso · Off: M. A. Rausch Tamayo Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' León W 2–0 Atlante W · K. Jasso
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' León W win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′We published León W at 57%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atlante W · On: A. Padron · Off: V. Sanchez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' León W · On: I. Esquivias · Off: M. A. Rausch Tamayo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' León W · On: J. De La Rosa · Off: A. Lozada
FTFULL TIME León W 2–0 Atlante W
FTLeón W 2–0 Atlante W · León W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

León W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: León W 57%, draw 23%, Atlante W 20%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on León W v Atlante WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

León W win57%

Draw23%

Atlante W win20%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 02:06

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeP. E. Perez Borja

Line-ups

León W

Atlante W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

León W

Atlante W

22Days since last match16

Last match: 29 Sept · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	León W	9	−2	12
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

León W

Formation not confirmed

23 N. S. Acuna

34 V. Aleman

4 A. Lozada

17 F. Pinilla

22 S. Cortes

6 V. Razo

11 S. Arteaga

16 M. A. Rausch Tamayo

10 S. Lemos

15 K. Soto

9 V. Bolanos

Coach · Alejandro Corona

Substitutes

1 · N. R. Buenfil

3 · D. Arias

30 · I. Esquivias

29 · K. Jasso

7 · J. De La Rosa

33 · Y. Barrientos

5 · D. Gutierrez

27 · I. Aleman

2 · M. Garcia

26 · M. Roman

Atlante W

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Amaro

4 V. Sanchez

5 S. Valera

2 A. Torres

3 E. Estrada

8 K. Becerril

10 A. Gonzalez

21 J. G. Felix Rosales

13 A. Kirnos

15 C. Herrera

22 A. Villanueva

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Riley

14 · S. Vivanco

23 · O. Chavez

24 · A. Padron

6 · D. Vidrio

17 · K. Lopez

11 · V. Gonzalez

9 · C. McDaniel

26 · R. Walker

16 · S. S. Gomez Mejia

Our number · león w winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make León W a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · León W v Atlante W~~1.83 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~11 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
León W win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Atlante W win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
León W or draw	80%	–	–
León W clean sheet	40%	–	–
Atlante W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 6.8 6.1 3.0 1 11.5 10.5 5.1 2 10.2 9.1 4.4 3 6.3 5.5 2.6 4 3.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+León W down, Atlante W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,765 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

León W at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlante W away: 0.40 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for León W, 0.94 for Atlante W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 22 Aug

LEÓN W

WLWWLL3–2 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–5

ATLANTE W

LLLWDL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Juárez W	11	+8	24
5	Toluca W	10	+9	22
6	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	11	+2	16
9	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
10	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	10	−8	12
13	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0