Juárez W v Querétaro W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Juárez WDrawQuerétaro W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:06

Before kick-off · Match result · Juárez W 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juárez W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juárez W 74%, draw 17%, Querétaro W 9%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Juárez W v Querétaro WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Juárez W win74%

Draw17%

Querétaro W win9%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:06

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juárez W

Querétaro W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juárez w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

74% The market79%

Us74%

~~Market~~79%

We make Juárez W a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juárez W v Querétaro W~~2.26 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 24 v 6~~5 v 16

~~The market · Juárez W win~~79% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juárez W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juárez W win	74%	79%	−5
Draw	17%	14%	+3
Querétaro W win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	67%	−13
Both teams to score	39%	47%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	85%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	32%	46%	−14
Juárez W or draw	91%	92%	−1
Juárez W clean sheet	56%	–	–
Querétaro W clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.5%

0123450 6.3 3.5 1 13.1 7.8 2.4 2 14.5 8.4 2.5 3 10.9 6.2 4 6.3 3.5 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Juárez W down, Querétaro W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,770 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juárez W at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Querétaro W away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Juárez W, 0.59 for Querétaro W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUE 2–1 JUA · JUA 4–0 QUE · JUA 1–0 QUE · QUE 0–2 JUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept

JUÁREZ W

WWWWLW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

QUERÉTARO W

LWLLLL0–2 · 6–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0