Guadalajara W v Necaxa W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:00

Guadalajara W 7–0 Necaxa W GUADALAJARA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalajara W win~~91%

~~The market said~~92%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.012

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.010

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalajara W win at 91%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guadalajara W 91% before kick-off, 91% now. 0–0 · 91–7–2
1′KICK-OFF Guadalajara W v Necaxa W
4′Guadalajara W ahead on 3′ through G. Valenzuela. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Guadalajara W 1–0 Necaxa W · G. Valenzuela (assist A. Cervantes)
15′J. A. Casarez scores for Guadalajara W on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Guadalajara W 2–0 Necaxa W · J. A. Casarez
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Isabel Melendez Villarreal · Necaxa W
26′🟨 YELLOW · 23' B. Johnson · Necaxa W
36′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Necaxa W · On: F. Bracamonte · Off: B. Johnson
45′HALF-TIME Guadalajara W 3–0 Necaxa W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Necaxa W · On: A. Terzian Jensen · Off: D. Cortez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Necaxa W · On: A. A. Navarro Flores · Off: A. Isabel Melendez Villarreal
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Necaxa W · On: T. Lizeth Quiroz Tinoco · Off: W. Peralta
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guadalajara W · On: V. Alvarado · Off: E. Gonzalez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guadalajara W · On: N. Villarreal · Off: C. Ferral
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guadalajara W · On: A. Iturbide · Off: J. A. Casarez
46′SECOND HALF Guadalajara W 3–0 Necaxa W
48′45′: M. Pelayo on the scoresheet for Guadalajara W, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Guadalajara W 3–0 Necaxa W · M. Pelayo
54′Guadalajara W ahead on 53′ through A. Iturbide. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Guadalajara W 4–0 Necaxa W · A. Iturbide
59′🟨 YELLOW · 23' B. Johnson · Necaxa W
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Necaxa W · On: Ariana navarro · Off: Sashenka Porras
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Guadalajara W · On: C. Jaramillo · Off: M. Mauleon Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Guadalajara W · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: D. Godinez
74′🟨 YELLOW · 70' F. Bracamonte · Necaxa W
83′C. Jaramillo scores for Guadalajara W on 82′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
83′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Guadalajara W 5–0 Necaxa W · C. Jaramillo (assist A. Iturbide)
90′89′: C. Jaramillo on the scoresheet for Guadalajara W, making it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Guadalajara W 6–0 Necaxa W · C. Jaramillo (assist A. Iturbide)
91′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
92′Guadalajara W ahead on 90′ through A. Iturbide. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Guadalajara W 7–0 Necaxa W · A. Iturbide
93′7 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Guadalajara W 7–0 Necaxa W
FTGuadalajara W 7–0 Necaxa W · Guadalajara W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadalajara W 91%, draw 6%, Necaxa W 2%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Guadalajara W v Necaxa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Guadalajara W win91%

Draw6%

Necaxa W win2%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 04:07

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Akron

Line-ups

Guadalajara W

Necaxa W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadalajara W

Necaxa W

17Days since last match17

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Guadalajara W

Formation not confirmed

12 B. M. Felix Castro

3 D. Godinez

4 N. Colin

5 C. Ferral

9 G. Valenzuela

14 M. Mauleon

16 E. Gonzalez

23 J. A. Casarez

22 D. Castro

13 M. Pelayo

24 A. Cervantes

Coach · Antonio Contreras

Substitutes

1 · H. K. Gonzalez Vite

21 · S. Lopez

2 · J. Rodriguez

17 · N. Villarreal

8 · C. Jaramillo

19 · V. Alvarado

77 · E. Cordulack

25 · J. Montoya

30 · E. Salazar

10 · A. Iturbide

Necaxa W

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Sanchez

18 Z. Cervantes

3 B. Johnson

2 A. Danae Gutierrez Acosta

16 J. Perez

52 Z. Medellin

9 W. Peralta

27 S. Porras

76 D. Cortez

12 A. Isabel Melendez Villarreal

4 M. Cavanaugh

Coach · Hugo Sanchez Guerrero

Substitutes

1 · A. L. Meza Acosta

5 · A. A. De Leon L.

33 · S. Plascencia

23 · A. A. Navarro Flores

67 · D. Ponce

22 · A. Terzian Jensen

21 · A. Y. Navarro Vargas

15 · F. Bracamonte

14 · T. Lizeth Quiroz Tinoco

Our number · guadalajara w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

91% The market92%

Us91%

~~Market~~92%

We make Guadalajara W a 91% chance to win. The market has them at 92%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.6–0.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadalajara W v Necaxa W~~3.60 – 0.41

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 21 v 0~~6 v 18

~~The market · Guadalajara W win~~92% · ours 91%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalajara W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 92% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara W win	91%	92%	−1
Draw	6%	6%	0
Necaxa W win	2%	2%	0
Over 2.5 goals	75%	85%	−10
Both teams to score	32%	23%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	90%	91%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	56%	70%	−14
Guadalajara W or draw	98%	98%	0
Guadalajara W clean sheet	67%	–	–
Necaxa W clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 13.6%

0123450 2.2 1 7.0 3.0 2 11.8 4.9 3 13.6 5.5 4 12.0 4.7 5 8.7 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara W down, Necaxa W across0–5 goals a side shown (83.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,767 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guadalajara W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Necaxa W away: 0.67 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.60 goals for Guadalajara W, 0.41 for Necaxa W. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEC 0–2 GUA · GUA 4–0 NEC · NEC 0–3 GUA · GUA 3–1 NEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug

GUADALAJARA W

LWLWWW0–2 · 4–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

NECAXA W

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–10 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Juárez W	11	+8	24
5	Toluca W	11	+9	23
6	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	11	+2	16
9	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
10	León W	10	0	15
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	10	−8	12
13	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0