Cruz Azul W v Toluca W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cruz Azul WDrawToluca W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Cruz Azul W 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruz Azul W 42%, draw 22%, Toluca W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Cruz Azul W v Toluca WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cruz Azul W win42%

Draw22%

Toluca W win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:10

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Centenario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruz Azul W

Toluca W

7Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cruz azul w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market30%

Us42%

~~Market~~30%

We make Cruz Azul W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruz Azul W v Toluca W~~1.87 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 23~~11 v 6

~~The market · Cruz Azul W win~~30% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruz Azul W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruz Azul W win	42%	30%	+12
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Toluca W win	36%	45%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	68%	62%	+6
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	42%	+5
Cruz Azul W or draw	64%	55%	+9
Cruz Azul W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Toluca W clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 4.8 4.1 2.3 1 5.3 9.1 7.4 4.2 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.9 3 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.4 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruz Azul W down, Toluca W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,769 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cruz Azul W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Toluca W away: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Cruz Azul W, 1.70 for Toluca W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOL 0–4 CRU · CRU 4–3 TOL · CRU 2–1 TOL · TOL 3–1 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 6 Sept

CRUZ AZUL W

WWLLWL2–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

TOLUCA W

LWLWWD1–5 · 6–0 · 2–7 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0