Atlético San Luis W v Juárez W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:30

Atlético San Luis W 1–2 Juárez W JUÁREZ W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juárez W win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.347

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juárez W win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Juárez W was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
1′KICK-OFF Atlético San Luis W v Juárez W
4′F. Caicedo scores for Juárez W on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–73
4′We published Juárez W at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 10–17–73
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Atlético San Luis W 0–1 Juárez W · F. Caicedo
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Juárez W win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' S. Arevalo · Atlético San Luis W
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' A. Kaci · Juárez W
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' L. Mercado · Juárez W
28′We published Juárez W at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–18–75
30′30′: F. Caicedo on the scoresheet for Juárez W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–93
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Atlético San Luis W 0–2 Juárez W · F. Caicedo
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Juárez W win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
31′We published Juárez W at 46%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 2–6–93
38′PENALTY MISSED · 38' E. Higuera · Atlético San Luis W
44′We published Juárez W at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
45′HALF-TIME Atlético San Luis W 0–2 Juárez W
46′SECOND HALF Atlético San Luis W 0–2 Juárez W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atlético San Luis W · On: C. Hernandez · Off: S. Arevalo
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Juárez W win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
58′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' D. Delgado · Atlético San Luis W
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Juárez W · On: N. Granados · Off: A. Kaci
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juárez W · On: N. Palafox · Off: M. Herrera Monge
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Juárez W · On: M. Castillo · Off: F. Caicedo
76′Atlético San Luis W pull one back on 75′ through E. Higuera. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
76′We published Juárez W at 46%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Atlético San Luis W 1–2 Juárez W · E. Higuera
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Juárez W win: 46% at kick-off, 88% now
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–11–89
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Contreras · Atlético San Luis W
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atlético San Luis W · On: A. Suarez · Off: A. Bello
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Juárez W win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Juárez W · On: M. Cadena · Off: G. Espinoza
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Juárez W · On: D. Martin · Off: A. Solorzano
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Castillo · Juárez W
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Atlético San Luis W · On: A. Lopez · Off: M. Sanchez
FTFULL TIME Atlético San Luis W 1–2 Juárez W
FTAtlético San Luis W 1–2 Juárez W · Juárez W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juárez W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético San Luis W 27%, draw 27%, Juárez W 46%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Atlético San Luis W v Juárez WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Atlético San Luis W win27%

Draw27%

Juárez W win46%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Libertad Financiera

RefereeE. Nevarez

Line-ups

Atlético San Luis W

Juárez W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético San Luis W

Juárez W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético San Luis W

Formation not confirmed

23 D. Bustos

8 M. Sanchez

27 E. Hernandez-Represa

25 F. Vargas

22 M. Gutierrez

19 N. Macias

33 D. Delgado

28 S. Arevalo

21 A. Bello

17 R. Contreras

9 E. Higuera

Coach · Ignacio Quintana

Substitutes

1 · A. Zarate

24 · R. Aguirre Tello

15 · I. Hernandez

3 · E. Houston

5 · C. Hernandez

7 · V. Lopez

26 · A. Lopez

12 · A. Herrera

30 · C. Singarella

13 · A. Suarez

Juárez W

Formation not confirmed

28 E. Alvarado

20 K. Abud

22 Mora Bianca

24 R. Galvez Luna

16 G. Espinoza

8 L. Mercado

6 A. Murillo

9 M. Herrera Monge

18 A. Kaci

19 F. Caicedo

13 A. Solorzano

Coach · Oscar Fernandez Novillo

Substitutes

12 · C. Holguin

4 · M. Castillo

30 · D. Fuentes

17 · C. Peraza

21 · M. Cadena

11 · D. Martin

3 · N. Granados

29 · A. Blanco

7 · N. Palafox

10 · M. Zuazua

Our number · juárez w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make Juárez W a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético San Luis W v Juárez W~~1.04 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~7 v 6

~~The market · Juárez W win~~52% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juárez W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético San Luis W win	27%	23%	+4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Juárez W win	46%	52%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Atlético San Luis W or draw	54%	48%	+6
Atlético San Luis W clean sheet	24%	–	–
Juárez W clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 11.9 8.7 4.2 1 8.5 12.4 8.8 4.3 2 4.5 6.4 4.6 2.2 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético San Luis W down, Juárez W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético San Luis W at home: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Juárez W away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Atlético San Luis W, 1.45 for Juárez W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JUA 1–0 ATL · ATL 0–2 JUA · JUA 2–0 ATL · ATL 2–3 JUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug

ATLÉTICO SAN LUIS W

WWLWDW6–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

JUÁREZ W

WWWWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	10	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19
8	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
9	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	+1	13
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	9	−7	12
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0