Atlas W v Puebla W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlas WDrawPuebla W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlas W 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlas W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlas W 71%, draw 17%, Puebla W 12%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Atlas W v Puebla WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atlas W win71%

Draw17%

Puebla W win12%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Jalisco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlas W

Puebla W

3Days since last match9

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlas w winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

71% The market66%

Us71%

~~Market~~66%

We make Atlas W a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlas W v Puebla W~~2.44 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~12 v 17

~~The market · Atlas W win~~66% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlas W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas W win	71%	66%	+5
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Puebla W win	12%	14%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Atlas W or draw	88%	86%	+2
Atlas W clean sheet	42%	–	–
Puebla W clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 4.1 3.2 1 8.9 7.9 3.4 2 10.7 9.2 4.0 3 8.6 7.3 3.2 4 5.3 4.5 5 2.7 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas W down, Puebla W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,769 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Puebla W away: 0.83 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Atlas W, 0.88 for Puebla W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUE 2–1 ATL · ATL 2–0 PUE · PUE 0–3 ATL · ATL 3–0 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept

ATLAS W

LWDWLD0–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

PUEBLA W

LLLLLD2–5 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0