Atlas W v León W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 05:00

Atlas W 1–1 León W ATLAS W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atlas W win~~40%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlas W win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlas W 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Atlas W v León W
14′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Atlas W · On: E. Vlassopoulos · Off: N. Villalobos
26′26′: S. Lemos on the scoresheet for León W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Atlas W 0–1 León W · S. Lemos
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Atlas W win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' León W win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Atlas W win 37%)
27′25′: S. Lemos on the scoresheet for León W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
27′We said Atlas W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 15–21–63
33′We said Atlas W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
45′HALF-TIME Atlas W 0–1 León W
46′SECOND HALF Atlas W 0–1 León W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Atlas W win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
52′We said Atlas W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' V. Acevedo · Atlas W
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atlas W · On: A. Martinez · Off: S. Munoz Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atlas W · On: C. Ramirez · Off: K. Flores
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' M. Maldonado · Atlas W
69′We said Atlas W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' León W · On: S. Arteaga · Off: V. Bolanos Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' León W · On: I. Aleman · Off: K. Soto Corrected
71′Atlas W level it on 71′ through M. Maldonado. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–56–21
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Atlas W 1–1 León W · M. Maldonado (assist S. Munoz)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Atlas W win: 40% at kick-off, 22% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was León W win 78%)
72′We said Atlas W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–58–21
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' León W · On: C. Lien Le · Off: J. De La Rosa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' León W · On: M. A. Rausch Tamayo · Off: F. Pinilla
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atlas W · On: A. Lopez · Off: V. Acevedo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atlas W · On: K. Lopez · Off: S. Munoz
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atlas W win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' León W · On: Y. Barrientos · Off: I. Esquivias
FTFULL TIME Atlas W 1–1 León W
FTAtlas W 1–1 León W · Atlas W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlas W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlas W 40%, draw 23%, León W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Atlas W v León WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atlas W win40%

Draw23%

León W win37%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 02:06

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio Jalisco

Line-ups

Atlas W

León W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlas W

León W

5Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	León W	10	0	15
12	Atlas W	10	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlas W

Formation not confirmed

12 C. Vazquez

23 V. Penuna

3 L. Saravia

5 V. Delgado

28 B. Quintos

6 V. Acevedo

13 M. Maldonado

7 K. Flores

9 N. Villalobos

26 S. Stephens

11 S. Munoz

Coach · Juan Alfaro

Substitutes

1 · K. Contreras

25 · D. Meza

17 · A. Lopez

20 · E. Vlassopoulos

29 · A. Martinez

19 · K. Lopez

14 · C. Ramirez

León W

Formation not confirmed

23 N. S. Acuna

34 V. Aleman

4 A. Lozada

17 F. Pinilla

30 I. Esquivias

7 J. De La Rosa

6 V. Razo

15 K. Soto

10 S. Lemos

2 M. Garcia

9 V. Bolanos

Coach · Alejandro Corona

Substitutes

1 · N. R. Buenfil

3 · D. Arias

22 · S. Cortes

29 · K. Jasso

33 · Y. Barrientos

5 · D. Gutierrez

11 · S. Arteaga

27 · I. Aleman

12 · C. Lien Le

16 · M. A. Rausch Tamayo

Our number · atlas w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

40% The market26%

Us40%

~~Market~~26%

We make Atlas W a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlas W v León W~~1.67 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~12 v 10

~~The market · Atlas W win~~26% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlas W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas W win	40%	26%	+14
Draw	23%	25%	−2
León W win	37%	48%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	63%	58%	+5
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	38%	+3
Atlas W or draw	63%	52%	+11
Atlas W clean sheet	21%	–	–
León W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 6.1 4.9 2.6 1 6.3 10.1 7.9 4.2 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.0 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas W down, León W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,768 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). León W away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Atlas W, 1.60 for León W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 4–0 ATL · ATL 2–4 LEO · LEO 4–3 ATL · ATL 0–0 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 29 Aug

ATLAS W

LLWDWL1–6 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

LEÓN W

LWWLLW0–1 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	11	+2	16
9	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
10	León W	10	0	15
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	10	−8	12
13	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0