Atlante W v Guadalajara W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlante WDrawGuadalajara W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Guadalajara W 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlante W 16%, draw 25%, Guadalajara W 59%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Atlante W v Guadalajara WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atlante W win16%

Draw25%

Guadalajara W win59%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 21:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Banorte

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlante W

Guadalajara W

6Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara w winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Guadalajara W a 59% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlante W v Guadalajara W~~0.66 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 24~~15 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalajara W win

Published at 56%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlante W win	16%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Guadalajara W win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Atlante W or draw	41%	–	–
Atlante W clean sheet	21%	–	–
Guadalajara W clean sheet	53%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.4%

0123450 11.1 16.4 13.2 7.2 3.1 1 6.7 10.7 8.2 4.4 2 2.4 3.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlante W down, Guadalajara W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,770 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atlante W at home: 0.80 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). Guadalajara W away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.66 goals for Atlante W, 1.61 for Guadalajara W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 5 Sept

ATLANTE W

LLWDLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

GUADALAJARA W

WLWWWW4–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	11	+35	28
3	Tigres UANL W	11	+24	28
4	Guadalajara W	11	+17	24
5	Juárez W	11	+8	24
6	Toluca W	11	+9	23
7	Atlético San Luis W	11	+6	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	12	+2	17
9	León W	11	0	16
10	Santos Laguna W	11	−7	16
11	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
12	Atlas W	11	−8	13
13	Tijuana W	12	−11	11
14	Pachuca W	11	−2	10
15	Atlante W	11	−9	7
16	Querétaro W	11	−14	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	11	−42	0