América W v Pachuca W prediction · Liga MX Femenil

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 04:30

América W 2–1 Pachuca W AMÉRICA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said América W win~~68%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.156

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.136

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said América W win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: América W was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–16–16
1′KICK-OFF América W v Pachuca W
6′América W ahead on 6′ through I. Guerrero. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–10–6
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' América W 1–0 Pachuca W · I. Guerrero
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' América W win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
7′We published América W at 68%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
20′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Pachuca W · On: J. Orejel · Off: B. Ibarra
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' E. R. Sanchez Stickel · Pachuca W
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–6
31′Geyse scores for América W on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' América W 2–0 Pachuca W · Geyse
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' América W win: 68% at kick-off, 94% now
32′We published América W at 68%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
34′We published América W at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
34′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Pachuca W · On: Jocelyn Orejel · Off: Berenice Ibarra Corrected
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' América W 2–1 Pachuca W
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' América W win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
39′35′: Mackenzee Vance on the scoresheet for Pachuca W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–13–5
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Gutierrez · América W
45′HALF-TIME América W 2–1 Pachuca W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' América W · On: Priscila · Off: S. Luebbert
47′SECOND HALF América W 2–1 Pachuca W
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' I. Guerrero · América W
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pachuca W · On: A. Veloz · Off: M. Vance
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pachuca W · On: C. Ihezuo · Off: K. Nieto
68′We published América W at 68%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' América W · On: M. Saldivar · Off: S. Camberos
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' América W win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' K. Luna · América W
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Geyse · América W
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' A. Veloz · Pachuca W
88′A red card for Pachuca W on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 95–5–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' América W · On: X. Pineda · Off: N. Antonio
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Pachuca W · On: A. Gomez · Off: N. Nicosia
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' América W win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' América W · On: M. Ramos · Off: K. Luna Corrected
FTFULL TIME América W 2–1 Pachuca W
FTAmérica W 2–1 Pachuca W · América W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

América W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: América W 68%, draw 16%, Pachuca W 16%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on América W v Pachuca WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

América W win68%

Draw16%

Pachuca W win16%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEstadio Banorte

RefereeA. C. Guarneros Lezama

Line-ups

América W

Pachuca W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

América W

Pachuca W

16Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga MX Femenil

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	América W	10	+34	25
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

América W

Formation not confirmed

12 I. Velasco

26 K. Luna

2 Isa Haas

15 K. Rodriguez

25 J. Gutierrez

5 G. Garcia

22 S. Luebbert

18 N. Antonio

8 I. Guerrero

10 S. Camberos

17 Geyse

Coach · Angel Villacampa Carrasco

Substitutes

1 · C. Espino

77 · A. Segura

3 · K. Rodriguez

11 · A. Avilez

19 · M. Saldivar

14 · A. Soto

28 · M. Ramos

13 · X. Pineda

9 · Priscila

30 · G. Riley

Pachuca W

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Barreras

2 K. Robles

8 Y. Minota

17 K. Caicedo

5 B. Ibarra

25 Aline Gomes

6 K. Nieto

16 E. R. Sanchez Stickel

21 M. Vance

9 V. Corral

10 N. Nicosia

Coach · Tome Montserrat

Substitutes

22 · C. Lopes

7 · J. Orejel

32 · A. Martinez

35 · J. Valdez Hernandez

30 · C. Ihezuo

13 · Eudimilla

23 · D. Flores

11 · A. Veloz

33 · A. Flores

79 · A. Gomez

Our number · américa w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

68% The market70%

Us68%

~~Market~~70%

We make América W a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · América W v Pachuca W~~2.80 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 25 v 10~~2 v 13

~~The market · América W win~~70% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · América W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
América W win	68%	70%	−2
Draw	16%	17%	−1
Pachuca W win	16%	13%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Both teams to score	68%	60%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	91%	85%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	58%	50%	+8
América W or draw	84%	87%	−3
América W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Pachuca W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.3 1 4.7 6.2 4.0 2 6.4 8.2 5.4 2.4 3 5.9 7.5 4.9 2.2 4 4.1 5.3 3.4 5 2.4 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+América W down, Pachuca W across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,762 Liga MX Femenil matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX Femenil matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

América W at home: 4.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pachuca W away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for América W, 1.31 for Pachuca W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AME 3–2 PAC · AME 1–0 PAC · PAC 3–2 AME · AME 2–0 PAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX Femenil this season · since 30 Aug

AMÉRICA W

WWWDWL3–1 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 3–4

PACHUCA W

LLLLWL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monterrey W	11	+27	30
2	América W	10	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	+7	19
8	Pumas UNAM W	11	+2	16
9	Santos Laguna W	10	−7	15
10	Cruz Azul W	11	−9	15
11	León W	9	−2	12
12	Atlas W	10	−8	12
13	Pachuca W	10	−1	10
14	Tijuana W	11	−11	10
15	Atlante W	10	−7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	−12	6
17	Puebla W	11	−26	4
18	Necaxa W	10	−35	0