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Venados FC v Leones Negros UDG

Venados FC

1–1Full time

Leones Negros UDG

Liga de Expansión MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG VENADOS FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Venados FC win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.956

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Venados FC win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Venados FC 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
1′KICK-OFF Venados FC v Leones Negros UDG
2′Little has changed for our model: Venados FC 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
32′Little has changed for our model: Venados FC 52% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
33′Little has changed for our model: Venados FC 52% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
45′HALF-TIME Venados FC 0–0 Leones Negros UDG
46′SECOND HALF Venados FC 0–0 Leones Negros UDG
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Venados FC · On: A. Dominguez · Off: K. Amador
64′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Leones Negros UDG · On: K. Loera · Off: L. Razo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Venados FC · On: E. Torres · Off: P. Kilani
75′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Leones Negros UDG · On: J. Perez · Off: J. Brigido
75′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Leones Negros UDG · On: A. Carreon · Off: A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
77′⚽ GOAL · 79' Venados FC 1–0 Leones Negros UDG · J. Reyes
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG · O. Gil (assist A. Carreon)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leones Negros UDG · On: J. Cazares · Off: O. Gil
85′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Venados FC · On: Ochoa Brandon · Off: D. Tejeda
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Venados FC · On: L. Macias · Off: J. Reyes
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Venados FC · On: M. Torres · Off: M. Aguilar
FTFULL TIME Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG
FTVenados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG · Venados FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Venados FC win52%

Draw21%

Leones Negros UDG win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Referee · A. Rodriguez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Venados FC

Formation not confirmed

3 S. Perez

32 M. Aguilar

21 J. A. Moreno Villegas

14 S. Montiel

31 I. Dominguez

18 K. Amador

5 S. Naveda

11 D. Tejeda

8 P. Kilani

7 J. Reyes

29 S. Lora

Coach · Nacho Castro

Substitutes

23 · R. Castellanos

34 · S. Saucedo

30 · M. Torres

13 · Ochoa Brandon

6 · E. Torres

20 · J. Cruz

10 · A. Dominguez

16 · L. Macias

27 · S. Benitez

33 · J. Canto

Leones Negros UDG

Formation not confirmed

1 O. M. Cantu Rodriguez

161 J. Escalante

21 O. Gonzalez

27 U. Meza

5 U. Torres

10 J. Brigido

28 A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

6 J. Marchand

34 S. A. Hernandez

20 O. Gil

9 L. Razo

Coach · Alfonso Sosa

Substitutes

12 · S. Martin

33 · L. Sepulveda

15 · A. Carreon

167 · M. Nuno

35 · J. Cazares

11 · J. Perez

19 · K. Loera

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Venados FC

Formation not confirmed

3 S. Perez

32 M. Aguilar

21 J. A. Moreno Villegas

14 S. Montiel

31 I. Dominguez

18 K. Amador

5 S. Naveda

11 D. Tejeda

8 P. Kilani

7 J. Reyes

29 S. Lora

Coach · Nacho Castro

Substitutes

23 · R. Castellanos

34 · S. Saucedo

30 · M. Torres

13 · Ochoa Brandon

6 · E. Torres

20 · J. Cruz

10 · A. Dominguez

16 · L. Macias

27 · S. Benitez

33 · J. Canto

Leones Negros UDG

Formation not confirmed

1 O. M. Cantu Rodriguez

161 J. Escalante

21 O. Gonzalez

27 U. Meza

5 U. Torres

10 J. Brigido

28 A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

6 J. Marchand

34 S. A. Hernandez

20 O. Gil

9 L. Razo

Coach · Alfonso Sosa

Substitutes

12 · S. Martin

33 · L. Sepulveda

15 · A. Carreon

167 · M. Nuno

35 · J. Cazares

11 · J. Perez

19 · K. Loera

Our number · venados fc winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Venados FC a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Venados FC win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	21%	24%	−2
Leones Negros UDG win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%	+6
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Venados FC or draw	73%	72%	+1
Venados FC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Leones Negros UDG clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.2 3.6 3.0 1 5.3 8.8 6.2 3.2 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 4.3 6.3 4.7 2.4 4 2.3 3.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Venados FC down, Leones Negros UDG across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.58 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Venados FC at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leones Negros UDG away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Venados FC, 1.51 for Leones Negros UDG. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.58

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~VEN 2–1 LEO · LEO 1–0 VEN · LEO 3–1 VEN · VEN 3–0 LEO

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

VENADOS FC

LLWLWW1–3 · 3–4 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

LEONES NEGROS UDG

DWDLWW1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 6–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	12	+13	23
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
3	Monarcas	11	+9	22
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	11	0	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6