Venados FC v Durango prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Venados FCDrawDurango

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Venados FC 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Venados FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Venados FC 53%, draw 24%, Durango 24%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Venados FC v DurangoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Venados FC win53%

Draw24%

Durango win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

RefereeJ. M. Negrete Preciado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Venados FC

Durango

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · venados fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 21:27 · locked at kick-off

53% The market44%

Us53%

~~Market~~44%

We make Venados FC a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Venados FC v Durango~~1.87 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 21~~6 v 7

~~The market · Venados FC win~~44% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Venados FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Venados FC win	53%	44%	+9
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Durango win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Venados FC or draw	76%	71%	+5
Venados FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Durango clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 5.2 3.4 1 8.4 11.0 6.1 2.4 2 8.2 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.1 5.9 3.5 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Venados FC down, Durango across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Venados FC at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Durango away: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Venados FC, 1.18 for Durango. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VEN 1–0 DUR · DUR 1–1 VEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept

VENADOS FC

WLWWDD5–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

DURANGO

LWWWDW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Cancún	14	+8	22
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7