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Tlaxcala v Piratas

Tlaxcala

4–2Full time

Piratas

Liga de Expansión MX · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Tlahuicole

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Tlaxcala 4–2 Piratas TLAXCALA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tlaxcala win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tlaxcala win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tlaxcala 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Tlaxcala v Piratas
2′Little has changed for our model: Tlaxcala 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–35
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tlaxcala 0–1 Piratas · D. Lajud Martinez
22′Piratas ahead on 18′ through D. Lajud Martinez. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Tlaxcala win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Piratas win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tlaxcala win 14%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Tlaxcala win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
23′Piratas ahead on 18′ through D. Lajud Martinez. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Lopez · Piratas
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Tlaxcala win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Tlaxcala 0–2 Piratas · D. Cruz
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Tlaxcala 1–2 Piratas · E. Robles
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Tlaxcala win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Piratas win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tlaxcala win 14%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Tlaxcala win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Piratas win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tlaxcala win 14%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' H. Hernandez · Piratas
45′HALF-TIME Tlaxcala 1–2 Piratas
46′SECOND HALF Tlaxcala 1–2 Piratas
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Lopez · Piratas
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' A. Lopez · Piratas
50′🟥 RED CARD · 48' A. Lopez · Piratas
51′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Piratas · On: U. Garcia · Off: G. Lopez
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tlaxcala 2–2 Piratas · M. A. Trejo Castro
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Christian · Tlaxcala
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tlaxcala · On: E. Hernandez · Off: A. Iniestra
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tlaxcala · On: C. Gonzalez · Off: I. Govea
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Piratas · On: J. Venegas · Off: O. Soto
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Piratas · On: C. Fernandez · Off: R. Gonzalez
77′🟥 RED CARD · 76' R. Palomares · Piratas
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Piratas · On: I. Doumbouya · Off: D. Lajud Martinez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Piratas · On: E. Vargas · Off: B. Figueroa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tlaxcala · On: J. Freyfeld · Off: E. Garcia
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tlaxcala · On: D. Hernandez · Off: D. Alvarez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Tlaxcala · On: R. E. Camacho Lastra · Off: M. A. Trejo Castro
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Tlaxcala 3–2 Piratas · Christian
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' B. Flores · Tlaxcala
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Tlaxcala 4–2 Piratas · Christian
FTTlaxcala 4–2 Piratas · Tlaxcala win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tlaxcala win38%

Draw27%

Piratas win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

Venue · Estadio Tlahuicole

Referee · E. L. Sanchez M.

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tlaxcala

Formation not confirmed

22 P. Bedolla

1 I. Govea

21 E. Garcia

29 M. A. Trejo Castro

25 B. Flores

3 E. Santos

9 Christian

16 M. Ramirez

6 A. Iniestra

24 E. Robles

11 D. Alvarez

Coach · Arturo Ortega

Substitutes

30 · A. Nuno

2 · C. Gonzalez

8 · F. Plascencia

12 · J. Freyfeld

7 · E. Hernandez

31 · R. Hernandez

149 · K. Mutoh

19 · R. E. Camacho Lastra

28 · D. Hernandez

159 · J. Zorrilla

Piratas

Formation not confirmed

20 H. Hernandez

14 R. Gonzalez

4 A. Lopez

15 R. Palomares

3 K. Y. Jaime Sanchez

6 D. Cruz

7 O. Soto

10 G. Lopez

8 B. Figueroa

25 D. Lajud Martinez

28 J. Gamboa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Sanchez

22 · U. Garcia

2 · A. Mantilla

21 · E. Vargas

13 · D. Sanchez

23 · J. Venegas

17 · E. Ochoa

19 · I. Doumbouya

9 · F. Garcia

16 · C. Fernandez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tlaxcala

Formation not confirmed

22 P. Bedolla

1 I. Govea

21 E. Garcia

29 M. A. Trejo Castro

25 B. Flores

3 E. Santos

9 Christian

16 M. Ramirez

6 A. Iniestra

24 E. Robles

11 D. Alvarez

Coach · Arturo Ortega

Substitutes

30 · A. Nuno

2 · C. Gonzalez

8 · F. Plascencia

12 · J. Freyfeld

7 · E. Hernandez

31 · R. Hernandez

149 · K. Mutoh

19 · R. E. Camacho Lastra

28 · D. Hernandez

159 · J. Zorrilla

Piratas

Formation not confirmed

20 H. Hernandez

14 R. Gonzalez

4 A. Lopez

15 R. Palomares

3 K. Y. Jaime Sanchez

6 D. Cruz

7 O. Soto

10 G. Lopez

8 B. Figueroa

25 D. Lajud Martinez

28 J. Gamboa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Sanchez

22 · U. Garcia

2 · A. Mantilla

21 · E. Vargas

13 · D. Sanchez

23 · J. Venegas

17 · E. Ochoa

19 · I. Doumbouya

9 · F. Garcia

16 · C. Fernandez

Our number · tlaxcala winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make Tlaxcala a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tlaxcala win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tlaxcala win	38%	27%	+11
Draw	27%	27%	0
Piratas win	35%	46%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Tlaxcala or draw	65%	54%	+11
Tlaxcala clean sheet	28%	–	–
Piratas clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.9 8.6 5.9 2.6 1 9.1 12.8 7.9 3.4 2 6.5 8.3 5.3 2.3 3 3.0 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tlaxcala down, Piratas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tlaxcala at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Piratas away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Tlaxcala, 1.29 for Piratas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

TLAXCALA

WDWLWD3–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1

PIRATAS

DWDWLW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	12	+13	23
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
3	Monarcas	11	+9	22
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	11	0	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6