Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TlaxcalaDrawCorrecaminos Uat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tlaxcala 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tlaxcala are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tlaxcala 56%, draw 22%, Correcaminos Uat 22%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Tlaxcala v Correcaminos UatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tlaxcala win56%

Draw22%

Correcaminos Uat win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Tlahuicole

RefereeF. Cruz Garatachea

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tlaxcala

Correcaminos Uat

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tlaxcala winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market47%

Us56%

~~Market~~47%

We make Tlaxcala a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat~~2.09 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~13 v 12

~~The market · Tlaxcala win~~47% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tlaxcala win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tlaxcala win	56%	47%	+9
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Correcaminos Uat win	22%	29%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	64%	60%	+4
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Tlaxcala or draw	78%	71%	+7
Tlaxcala clean sheet	30%	–	–
Correcaminos Uat clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.4 4.0 2.8 1 7.1 9.8 5.6 2.3 2 7.9 9.5 5.8 2.4 3 5.5 6.6 4.0 4 2.9 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tlaxcala down, Correcaminos Uat across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tlaxcala at home: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Correcaminos Uat away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Tlaxcala, 1.23 for Correcaminos Uat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COR 2–1 TLA · TLA 0–2 COR · COR 1–1 TLA · TLA 3–2 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept

TLAXCALA

WLWDWD3–1 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

CORRECAMINOS UAT

DLWDLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Venados FC	14	+6	24
4	Monarcas	13	+8	23
5	Cancún	14	+8	22
6	Piratas	13	+7	21
7	Durango	14	+4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7