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Tepatitlán v Monarcas

Tepatitlán

1–1Full time

Monarcas

Liga de Expansión MX · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:30

Tepatitlán 1–1 Monarcas TEPATITLÁN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tepatitlán win~~41%

~~The market said~~16%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.078

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tepatitlán win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tepatitlán 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Tepatitlán v Monarcas
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' M. Nambo · Monarcas
6′SUBSTITUTION · 6' Monarcas · On: J. Van Rankin · Off: R. del Campo Corrected
20′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Monarcas · On: A. Andrade · Off: J. Martinez
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' S. Hernandez · Monarcas
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Tepatitlán 1–0 Monarcas · J. Cruz
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' J. Sanchez · Tepatitlán
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' G. Baez · Tepatitlán
45′HALF-TIME Tepatitlán 1–0 Monarcas
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monarcas · On: J. Van Rankin · Off: S. Hernandez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monarcas · On: P. Romero · Off: V. Lopez
46′SECOND HALF Tepatitlán 1–0 Monarcas
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' G. Baez · Tepatitlán
50′🟥 RED CARD · 49' G. Baez · Tepatitlán
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Tepatitlán · On: N. Martinez · Off: J. Godinez
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tepatitlán 1–1 Monarcas · A. Flores
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tepatitlán · On: B. Casas · Off: J. Cruz
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Monarcas · On: A. Izarra · Off: M. Rodriguez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tepatitlán · On: I. Contreras · Off: V. Valencia
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tepatitlán · On: T. Arevalo · Off: L. Egurrola
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' D. Zamora · Monarcas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' A. Andrade · Monarcas
FTFULL TIME Tepatitlán 1–1 Monarcas
FTTepatitlán 1–1 Monarcas · Tepatitlán win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tepatitlán win41%

Draw29%

Monarcas win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 02:00

Referee · J. Gil

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tepatitlán

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Gatica

24 V. Valencia

6 G. Baez

36 J. Sanchez

38 A. Cardenas

40 A. Tamay

25 A. Moreno

5 D. Villalpando

37 L. Egurrola

39 J. Cruz

23 J. Godinez

Coach · Gustavo Olvera

Substitutes

35 · D. Rodriguez

13 · N. Martinez

3 · I. Contreras

16 · H. Aguilar

8 · L. Vazquez

9 · L. Paez

32 · T. Arevalo

33 · E. Alcantar

44 · F. Modica

31 · B. Casas

Monarcas

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Pasquel Colin

2 R. Lopez Aburto

6 D. De Buen

4 D. Zamora

3 S. Hernandez

8 J. Martinez

26 J. Martinez

19 M. Rodriguez

11 V. Lopez

17 M. Nambo

9 R. del Campo

Coach · Roberto Colace Hugo

Substitutes

1 · R. Galan

5 · J. Van Rankin

14 · R. Castellanos

18 · G. Martinez

15 · O. Botello

13 · A. Andrade

21 · E. Castellanos

7 · P. Romero

28 · A. Flores

32 · A. Izarra

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tepatitlán

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Gatica

24 V. Valencia

6 G. Baez

36 J. Sanchez

38 A. Cardenas

40 A. Tamay

25 A. Moreno

5 D. Villalpando

37 L. Egurrola

39 J. Cruz

23 J. Godinez

Coach · Gustavo Olvera

Substitutes

35 · D. Rodriguez

13 · N. Martinez

3 · I. Contreras

16 · H. Aguilar

8 · L. Vazquez

9 · L. Paez

32 · T. Arevalo

33 · E. Alcantar

44 · F. Modica

31 · B. Casas

Monarcas

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Pasquel Colin

2 R. Lopez Aburto

6 D. De Buen

4 D. Zamora

3 S. Hernandez

8 J. Martinez

26 J. Martinez

19 M. Rodriguez

11 V. Lopez

17 M. Nambo

9 R. del Campo

Coach · Roberto Colace Hugo

Substitutes

1 · R. Galan

5 · J. Van Rankin

14 · R. Castellanos

18 · G. Martinez

15 · O. Botello

13 · A. Andrade

21 · E. Castellanos

7 · P. Romero

28 · A. Flores

32 · A. Izarra

Our number · tepatitlán winPublished 10 Oct 02:00

41% The market16%

Us41%

~~Market~~16%

We make Tepatitlán a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 16%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tepatitlán win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 16% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tepatitlán win	41%	16%	+25
Draw	29%	20%	+9
Monarcas win	31%	64%	−34
Over 2.5 goals	42%	63%	−21
Both teams to score	48%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	83%	−14
Over 3.5 goals	22%	42%	−21
Tepatitlán or draw	69%	36%	+34
Tepatitlán clean sheet	34%	–	–
Monarcas clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 9.5 5.5 1 11.5 13.4 6.9 2.5 2 7.8 8.3 4.4 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tepatitlán down, Monarcas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tepatitlán at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Monarcas away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Tepatitlán, 1.08 for Monarcas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 3–2 TEP · TEP 3–2 MON · TEP 3–1 MON · MON 2–1 TEP

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

TEPATITLÁN

WLLLLW3–2 · 0–6 · 1–4 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 3–1

MONARCAS

WWWWLD1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
2	Monarcas	11	+9	22
3	CA La Paz	11	+11	20
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	10	+2	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6