Home › Football › Liga de Expansión MX › Tepatitlán v Cancún

Tepatitlán v Cancún

Tepatitlán

0–4Full time

Cancún

Liga de Expansión MX · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 04:35

Tepatitlán 0–4 Cancún TEPATITLÁN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tepatitlán win~~37%

~~The market said~~20%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.262

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tepatitlán win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tepatitlán 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Tepatitlán v Cancún
16′T. Gigena scores for Cancún on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Tepatitlán 0–1 Cancún · T. Gigena (assist F. Melendre)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Tepatitlán win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Cancún win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Tepatitlán win 35%)
17′We said Tepatitlán at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
28′27′: J. Rodriguez on the scoresheet for Cancún, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
28′We said Tepatitlán at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Tepatitlán 0–2 Cancún · J. Rodriguez
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Tepatitlán win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Tepatitlán 0–2 Cancún
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tepatitlán · On: I. Contreras · Off: A. Cardenas
46′SECOND HALF Tepatitlán 0–2 Cancún
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Reyes · Cancún
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' F. Sanguinetti · Tepatitlán
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
60′Tepatitlán are down to ten from 59′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–4–95
60′🟥 RED CARD · 59' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
64′Cancún ahead on 64′ through J. Rodriguez. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Tepatitlán 0–3 Cancún · J. Rodriguez
65′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cancún · On: L. Lopez · Off: C. Vela
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cancún · On: G. Preciado · Off: T. Gigena
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tepatitlán · On: M. Lopez · Off: A. Tamay
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tepatitlán · On: E. Alcantar · Off: J. Sanchez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tepatitlán · On: J. L. Rios Orbe · Off: F. Sanguinetti Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cancún · On: D. Lomeli · Off: J. Hernandez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Tepatitlán · On: F. Modica · Off: F. Sanguinetti
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
82′J. Rodriguez scores for Cancún on 82′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tepatitlán 0–4 Cancún · J. Rodriguez
83′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
84′🟨 YELLOW · 80' G. Olvera · Tepatitlán
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' F. Melendre · Cancún
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cancún · On: D. Guillen · Off: F. Melendre
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cancún · On: G. Perez · Off: R. Reyes
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' G. Preciado · Cancún
FTFULL TIME Tepatitlán 0–4 Cancún
FTTepatitlán 0–4 Cancún · Tepatitlán win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tepatitlán just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tepatitlán 37%, draw 28%, Cancún 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Tepatitlán v CancúnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tepatitlán win37%

Draw28%

Cancún win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

RefereeL. A. Garcia Olvera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tepatitlán

Cancún

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cancún	13	+4	19
16	Tepatitlán	13	−27	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tepatitlán winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market20%

Us37%

~~Market~~20%

We make Tepatitlán a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 20%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tepatitlán v Cancún~~1.26 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 19~~16 v 7

~~The market · Tepatitlán win~~20% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tepatitlán win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 20% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tepatitlán win	37%	20%	+17
Draw	28%	22%	+6
Cancún win	35%	58%	−23
Over 2.5 goals	45%	61%	−16
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	24%	40%	−16
Tepatitlán or draw	65%	42%	+23
Tepatitlán clean sheet	30%	–	–
Cancún clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.2 9.5 6.2 2.6 1 9.8 13.4 7.7 3.2 2 6.6 8.0 4.9 2.0 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tepatitlán down, Cancún across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tepatitlán at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cancún away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Tepatitlán, 1.23 for Cancún. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAN 2–2 TEP · TEP 1–2 CAN · TEP 1–1 CAN · CAN 2–0 TEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept

TEPATITLÁN

LLWDLL0–5 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–3

CANCÚN

DWLWDD1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Piratas	13	+7	21
5	Venados FC	13	+5	21
6	Durango	13	+5	21
7	Cancún	13	+4	19
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	13	−27	7