Tapatío v Tepatitlán prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 02:30

Tapatío 4–1 Tepatitlán TAPATÍO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tapatío win~~58%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.270

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 45 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tapatío win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tapatío was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
1′KICK-OFF Tapatío v Tepatitlán
3′Tapatío ahead on 3′ through V. Moragrega. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Tapatío 1–0 Tepatitlán
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
6′We published Tapatío at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' S. Zamora · Tapatío
19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Tapatío 2–0 Tepatitlán · V. Moragrega
24′V. Moragrega scores for Tapatío on 22′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Tapatío 2–1 Tepatitlán · J. Cruz
27′26′ and it is 2–1: J. Cruz on the scoresheet for Tepatitlán. 2–1 · 80–14–6
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
31′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–14–5
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Tapatío 3–1 Tepatitlán · D. Villaseca
37′Tapatío ahead on 36′ through D. Villaseca. 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' J. Sanchez · Tepatitlán
40′We published Tapatío at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
43′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–4–1
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: L. Jimenez · Off: J. Uribe
45′SECOND HALF Tapatío 3–1 Tepatitlán
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
45′🟥 RED CARD · 46' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
46′Tepatitlán are down to ten from 46′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 96–3–1
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' C. Soldati · Tapatío
46′🟥 RED CARD · 46' C. Soldati · Tapatío
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: D. Zamarripa · Off: V. Moragrega
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Tapatío
49′A red card for Tapatío on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 96–3–1
49′🟥 RED CARD · 47' C. Soldati · Tapatío
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Tapatío · On: G. Garcia · Off: D. Villaseca
57′🟨 YELLOW · 16' S. Zamora · Tapatío
57′🟨 YELLOW · 20' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
57′🟨 YELLOW · 40' J. Sanchez · Tepatitlán
57′🟨 YELLOW · 44' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
57′🟥 RED CARD · 47' C. Soldati · Tapatío
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: L. Jimenez · Off: J. Uribe
57′🟨 YELLOW · 46' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
57′🟥 RED CARD · 46' N. Martinez · Tepatitlán
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: D. Zamarripa · Off: V. Moragrega
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Tapatío · On: G. Garcia · Off: D. Villaseca
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tepatitlán · On: B. Casas · Off: J. Godinez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tepatitlán · On: I. Contreras · Off: V. Valencia
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tepatitlán · On: G. Olvera · Off: L. Egurrola
65′G. Garcia scores for Tapatío on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′PENALTY MISSED · 65' G. Garcia · Tapatío
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tapatío · On: L. Ledesma · Off: S. Zamora
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tepatitlán · On: F. Sanguinetti · Off: A. Moreno
68′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tepatitlán · On: D. Rodriguez · Off: A. Gatica
80′We published Tapatío at 58%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tapatío · On: R. Nuno · Off: G. Gutierrez
87′G. Garcia scores for Tapatío on 87′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tapatío 4–1 Tepatitlán · G. Garcia
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' F. Sanguinetti · Tepatitlán
FTFULL TIME Tapatío 4–1 Tepatitlán
FTTapatío 4–1 Tepatitlán · Tapatío win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Tapatío v TepatitlánBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 23:42 · locked at kick-off

Tapatío win58%

Draw23%

Tepatitlán win19%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Akron

Line-ups

Tapatío

Tepatitlán

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tapatío

Tepatitlán

4Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Tapatío	11	0	14
16	Tepatitlán	11	-21	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tapatío

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Liceaga

43 R. Parra

53 C. Soldati

42 D. Delgadillo

58 J. Uribe

44 S. Zamora

196 D. Covarrubias

69 D. Villaseca

255 G. Gutierrez

64 D. Latorre

49 V. Moragrega

Coach · Jose Melendez

Substitutes

45 · E. Garcia

63 · M. Cendejas

195 · D. Zamarripa

47 · G. Garcia

70 · L. Torres

60 · L. Ledesma

50 · C. Medina

48 · L. Jimenez

54 · R. Nuno

199 · A. Ben Rhouma

Tepatitlán

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Gatica

24 V. Valencia

36 J. Sanchez

38 A. Cardenas

13 N. Martinez

40 A. Tamay

25 A. Moreno

5 D. Villalpando

37 L. Egurrola

39 J. Cruz

23 J. Godinez

Coach · Gustavo Olvera

Substitutes

35 · D. Rodriguez

3 · I. Contreras

22 · F. Sanguinetti

10 · H. Vazquez

9 · L. Paez

32 · T. Arevalo

33 · E. Alcantar

44 · F. Modica

31 · B. Casas

11 · G. Olvera

Our number · tapatío winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 23:42 · locked at kick-off

58% The market64%

Us58%

~~Market~~64%

We make Tapatío a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tapatío v Tepatitlán~~1.92 – 1.02

~~Last six in Liga de Expansión MX~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~11 v 16

~~The market · Tapatío win~~64% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tapatío win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tapatío win	58%	64%	−6
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Tepatitlán win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	67%	−12
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	47%	−13
Tapatío or draw	81%	84%	−3
Tapatío clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tepatitlán clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.1 4.9 2.8 1 9.7 10.8 5.2 2 9.7 9.7 4.9 3 6.2 6.2 3.2 4 3.0 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tapatío down, Tepatitlán across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,475 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tapatío at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tepatitlán away: 0.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Tapatío, 1.02 for Tepatitlán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~TEP 2–0 TAP · TAP 1–3 TEP · TEP 1–0 TAP · TAP 1–1 TEP

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

TAPATÍO

DLLWLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

TEPATITLÁN

LLLLWD0–6 · 1–4 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leones Negros UDG	12	11	24
2	CA La Paz	12	13	23
3	Monarcas	12	9	23
4	Venados FC	12	5	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	4	18
6	Cancún	12	4	18
7	Piratas	12	4	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tlaxcala	12	-2	15
11	Tapatío	11	0	14
12	Dorados	12	-2	13
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	-13	13
14	CDS Tampico Madero	12	-7	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	-5	11
16	Tepatitlán	11	-21	7