Tapatío v Monarcas prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TapatíoDrawMonarcas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tapatío 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tapatío are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tapatío 49%, draw 26%, Monarcas 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Tapatío v MonarcasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tapatío win49%

Draw26%

Monarcas win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Akron

RefereeE. Miranda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tapatío

Monarcas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tapatío winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market32%

Us49%

~~Market~~32%

We make Tapatío a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tapatío v Monarcas~~1.66 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~10 v 3

~~The market · Tapatío win~~32% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tapatío win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tapatío win	49%	32%	+17
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Monarcas win	26%	41%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	37%	−6
Tapatío or draw	74%	59%	+15
Tapatío clean sheet	32%	–	–
Monarcas clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 6.3 4.0 1 9.4 12.0 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.6 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tapatío down, Monarcas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,486 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tapatío at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Monarcas away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Tapatío, 1.15 for Monarcas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAP 2–1 MON · MON 0–0 TAP · TAP 1–0 MON · MON 1–4 TAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 13 Sept

TAPATÍO

LWLLWL1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 0–5

MONARCAS

WWLDDL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Cancún	14	+8	22
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7