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Tapatío v CA La Paz

Tapatío

2–4Full time

CA La Paz

Liga de Expansión MX · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Akron

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:30

Tapatío 2–4 CA La Paz TAPATÍO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tapatío win~~58%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.003

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tapatío win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tapatío was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–21
1′KICK-OFF Tapatío v CA La Paz
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Tapatío 0–1 CA La Paz · A. Robles
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Tapatío 1–1 CA La Paz · D. Villaseca
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Tapatío 1–2 CA La Paz · F. Illescas
16′🟥 RED CARD · 15' S. Esparza · Tapatío
22′11′ and it is 1–2: F. Illescas on the scoresheet for CA La Paz. 1–2 · 29–25–46
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Tapatío win: 58% at kick-off, 29% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' CA La Paz win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tapatío win 29%)
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' M. Barragan · CA La Paz
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' C. Robles · CA La Paz
45′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tapatío 2–2 CA La Paz · V. Moragrega
45′HALF-TIME Tapatío 2–2 CA La Paz
46′SECOND HALF Tapatío 2–2 CA La Paz
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Tapatío 2–3 CA La Paz · A. Robles
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' U. Zurita Jimenez · CA La Paz
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Tapatío 2–4 CA La Paz · U. Jaimes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CA La Paz · On: O. Millan · Off: M. Garcia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tapatío · On: D. Covarrubias · Off: D. Delgadillo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tapatío · On: G. Gutierrez · Off: G. Garcia
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CA La Paz · On: E. J. Alaffita Garcia · Off: A. Robles
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' D. Villaseca · Tapatío
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' CA La Paz · On: J. Ferrer · Off: M. Barragan
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' CA La Paz · On: I. Larios · Off: J. Alonzo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tapatío · On: R. Nuno · Off: J. Uribe
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tapatío · On: L. Torres · Off: V. Moragrega
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tapatío · On: L. Ledesma · Off: D. Villaseca
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' F. Illescas · CA La Paz
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' R. Parra · Tapatío
FTFULL TIME Tapatío 2–4 CA La Paz
FTTapatío 2–4 CA La Paz · Tapatío win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tapatío win58%

Draw21%

CA La Paz win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Akron

Referee · M. Guzman

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tapatío

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Liceaga

43 R. Parra

53 C. Soldati

42 D. Delgadillo

58 J. Uribe

63 M. Cendejas

47 G. Garcia

44 S. Zamora

55 S. Esparza

69 D. Villaseca

49 V. Moragrega

Coach · Jose Melendez

Substitutes

61 · A. A. Leyva Cortes

195 · D. Zamarripa

70 · L. Torres

60 · L. Ledesma

50 · C. Medina

48 · L. Jimenez

196 · D. Covarrubias

54 · R. Nuno

64 · D. Latorre

255 · G. Gutierrez

CA La Paz

Formation not confirmed

33 G. Alcala

28 U. Zurita Jimenez

21 C. Robles

16 Y. Del Aguila

77 J. Alonzo

20 M. Garcia

5 E. Torres

25 F. Illescas

30 A. Robles

10 M. Barragan

19 U. Jaimes

Coach · Hugo Castillo

Substitutes

23 · J. Estrada

22 · J. Daccarett

15 · H. Torres

6 · D. Hernandez

13 · E. J. Alaffita Garcia

9 · J. Ferrer

11 · R. Renteria

18 · I. Larios

12 · O. Millan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tapatío

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Liceaga

43 R. Parra

53 C. Soldati

42 D. Delgadillo

58 J. Uribe

63 M. Cendejas

47 G. Garcia

44 S. Zamora

55 S. Esparza

69 D. Villaseca

49 V. Moragrega

Coach · Jose Melendez

Substitutes

61 · A. A. Leyva Cortes

195 · D. Zamarripa

70 · L. Torres

60 · L. Ledesma

50 · C. Medina

48 · L. Jimenez

196 · D. Covarrubias

54 · R. Nuno

64 · D. Latorre

255 · G. Gutierrez

CA La Paz

Formation not confirmed

33 G. Alcala

28 U. Zurita Jimenez

21 C. Robles

16 Y. Del Aguila

77 J. Alonzo

20 M. Garcia

5 E. Torres

25 F. Illescas

30 A. Robles

10 M. Barragan

19 U. Jaimes

Coach · Hugo Castillo

Substitutes

23 · J. Estrada

22 · J. Daccarett

15 · H. Torres

6 · D. Hernandez

13 · E. J. Alaffita Garcia

9 · J. Ferrer

11 · R. Renteria

18 · I. Larios

12 · O. Millan

Our number · tapatío winPublished 10 Oct 00:00

58% The market34%

Us58%

~~Market~~34%

We make Tapatío a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 24 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tapatío win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tapatío win	58%	34%	+24
Draw	21%	25%	−4
CA La Paz win	21%	41%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	66%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Tapatío or draw	79%	59%	+20
Tapatío clean sheet	29%	–	–
CA La Paz clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 3.7 2.6 1 6.7 9.2 5.4 2.3 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.5 6.8 4.3 4 3.1 3.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tapatío down, CA La Paz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.12 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tapatío at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CA La Paz away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Tapatío, 1.26 for CA La Paz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CAL 2–2 TAP · TAP 2–0 CAL · CAL 4–1 TAP · TAP 1–0 CAL

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

TAPATÍO

WDLLWL4–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1

CA LA PAZ

WWDWWL2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
2	Monarcas	11	+9	22
3	CA La Paz	11	+11	20
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	10	+2	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6