Piratas v Tepatitlán prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Piratas 3–0 Tepatitlán PIRATAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Piratas win~~56%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.296

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Piratas win at 56%.
4′KICK-OFF Piratas v Tepatitlán
15′Much as we predicted: Piratas was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–28–20
25′🟨 YELLOW · 21' L. Egurrola · Tepatitlán
36′We published Piratas at 56%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–5
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–5
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Piratas 1–0 Tepatitlán
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Piratas win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 33' J. Sanchez · Tepatitlán
40′U. Garcia scores for Piratas on 36′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Piratas 1–0 Tepatitlán
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' G. Baez · Tepatitlán
46′SECOND HALF Piratas 1–0 Tepatitlán
57′A red card for Tepatitlán on 55′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 83–14–3
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Tepatitlán
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Tepatitlán · On: F. Sanguinetti · Off: J. Godinez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Tepatitlán · On: G. Olvera · Off: L. Egurrola
67′We published Piratas at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′66′: C. Fernandez on the scoresheet for Piratas, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Piratas 2–0 Tepatitlán
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Piratas win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' J. Cruz · Tepatitlán
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tepatitlán · On: H. Avila · Off: J. Cruz
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Piratas · On: I. Doumbouya · Off: G. Lopez
80′We published Piratas at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Piratas · On: E. Ochoa · Off: J. Gamboa
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Piratas · On: J. Clemente · Off: B. Figueroa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Piratas · On: O. Soto · Off: C. Fernandez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Piratas · On: F. Garcia · Off: D. Lajud Martinez
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Piratas at 56% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Tepatitlán · On: F. Modica · Off: D. Villalpando
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Tepatitlán · On: T. Arevalo · Off: A. Tamay
98′Piratas ahead on 90′ through I. Doumbouya. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Piratas 3–0 Tepatitlán · I. Doumbouya (penalty)
FTFULL TIME Piratas 3–0 Tepatitlán
FTPiratas 3–0 Tepatitlán · Piratas win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Piratas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Piratas 56%, draw 25%, Tepatitlán 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Piratas v TepatitlánBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Piratas win56%

Draw25%

Tepatitlán win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

RefereeE. A. Ramirez Gutierrez

Line-ups

Piratas

Tepatitlán

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Piratas

Tepatitlán

8Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 14 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Piratas	12	+4	18
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Piratas

Formation not confirmed

20 H. Hernandez

6 D. Cruz

14 R. Gonzalez

22 U. Garcia

3 K. Y. Jaime Sanchez

10 G. Lopez

23 J. Venegas

8 B. Figueroa

16 C. Fernandez

28 J. Gamboa

25 D. Lajud Martinez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Sanchez

26 · J. Clemente

2 · A. Mantilla

7 · O. Soto

21 · E. Vargas

13 · D. Sanchez

17 · E. Ochoa

19 · I. Doumbouya

27 · M. Jimenez

9 · F. Garcia

Tepatitlán

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Gatica

24 V. Valencia

6 G. Baez

36 J. Sanchez

38 A. Cardenas

40 A. Tamay

25 A. Moreno

5 D. Villalpando

37 L. Egurrola

23 J. Godinez

39 J. Cruz

Coach · Gustavo Olvera

Substitutes

35 · D. Rodriguez

3 · I. Contreras

27 · H. Avila

22 · F. Sanguinetti

10 · H. Vazquez

32 · T. Arevalo

33 · E. Alcantar

44 · F. Modica

17 · S. Gonzalez

11 · G. Olvera

Our number · piratas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:45 · locked at kick-off

56% The market79%

Us56%

~~Market~~79%

We make Piratas a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 23 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Piratas v Tepatitlán~~1.75 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 7~~6 v 16

~~The market · Piratas win~~79% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Piratas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Piratas win	56%	79%	−23
Draw	25%	13%	+12
Tepatitlán win	20%	8%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	50%	72%	−22
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	87%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	28%	54%	−26
Piratas or draw	80%	92%	−12
Piratas clean sheet	39%	–	–
Tepatitlán clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.6 5.9 3.1 1 11.3 11.6 5.2 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 6.1 5.6 2.6 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Piratas down, Tepatitlán across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Piratas at home: 2.20 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Tepatitlán away: 0.33 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Piratas, 0.94 for Tepatitlán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 4 Sept

PIRATAS

WDWLWL4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 2–4

TEPATITLÁN

LLLWDL1–4 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7