Monarcas v CDS Tampico Madero prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Monarcas 1–2 CDS Tampico Madero MONARCAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monarcas win~~48%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.156

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monarcas win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: Monarcas was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–22
2′KICK-OFF Monarcas v CDS Tampico Madero
13′🟨 YELLOW · 10' I. Ramirez · CDS Tampico Madero
32′PENALTY MISSED · 32' A. Flores · Monarcas
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' D. Aguilar · Monarcas
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Monarcas win 37%)
44′44′: R. Lopez Aburto on the scoresheet for Monarcas, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–4
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Monarcas 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero · R. Lopez Aburto
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, 81% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Monarcas win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
45′We published Monarcas at 48%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–4
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–4
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' O. Manzanarez · CDS Tampico Madero
45′HALF-TIME Monarcas 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CDS Tampico Madero · On: A. Rios · Off: I. Ramirez
46′SECOND HALF Monarcas 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero
63′We published Monarcas at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' CDS Tampico Madero · On: R. Gonzalez · Off: S. Martinez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' CDS Tampico Madero · On: F. Lopez · Off: J. Tovar
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' A. Flores · Monarcas
73′CDS Tampico Madero level it on 73′ through F. Lopez. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–70–11
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Monarcas 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero · F. Lopez
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Monarcas win 19%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
75′We said Monarcas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–72–10
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Monarcas · On: E. Castellanos · Off: O. Botello
78′We said Monarcas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Monarcas · On: R. Castellanos · Off: M. Rodriguez Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' E. Torres · CDS Tampico Madero
83′We said Monarcas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
83′J. Martinez scores for CDS Tampico Madero on 83′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–9–91
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Monarcas · On: R. Castellanos · Off: M. Rodriguez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CDS Tampico Madero · On: J. Martinez · Off: C. Cruz
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Monarcas · On: A. Izarra · Off: D. Aguilar
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Monarcas 1–2 CDS Tampico Madero · J. Martinez
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Monarcas win: 48% at kick-off, under 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' CDS Tampico Madero win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
85′We said Monarcas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–7–93
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Monarcas · On: V. Lopez · Off: J. Martinez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Monarcas · On: P. Romero · Off: M. Nambo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' CDS Tampico Madero · On: A. M. Ham Puertos · Off: D. Lopez
FTFULL TIME Monarcas 1–2 CDS Tampico Madero
FTMonarcas 1–2 CDS Tampico Madero · Monarcas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monarcas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monarcas 48%, draw 30%, CDS Tampico Madero 22%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Monarcas v CDS Tampico MaderoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monarcas win48%

Draw30%

CDS Tampico Madero win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Morelos

RefereeA. Rodriguez

Line-ups

Monarcas

CDS Tampico Madero

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monarcas

CDS Tampico Madero

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monarcas

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Pasquel Colin

2 R. Lopez Aburto

5 J. Van Rankin

6 D. De Buen

15 O. Botello

8 J. Martinez

13 A. Andrade

19 M. Rodriguez

20 D. Aguilar

17 M. Nambo

28 A. Flores

Coach · Roberto Colace Hugo

Substitutes

1 · R. Galan

14 · R. Castellanos

18 · G. Martinez

35 · E. S. Sanchez Cruz

3 · S. Hernandez

21 · E. Castellanos

7 · P. Romero

170 · B. A. Vieyra Fuerte

11 · V. Lopez

32 · A. Izarra

CDS Tampico Madero

Formation not confirmed

13 G. Ruiz

3 R. Pena

26 O. Manzanarez

17 I. Ramirez

25 A. Padilla

20 J. Tovar

5 I. Ochoa

33 S. Martinez

11 C. Cruz

19 D. Lopez

10 E. Torres

Coach · Daniel Alcantar

Substitutes

1 · J. Garcia

4 · A. Rios

8 · R. Gonzalez

16 · J. Martinez

27 · E. Escalante

177 · O. Mendez

14 · N. Corona

21 · F. Lopez

15 · A. M. Ham Puertos

22 · N. Arriaga

Our number · monarcas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market63%

Us48%

~~Market~~63%

We make Monarcas a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monarcas v CDS Tampico Madero~~1.31 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 12~~3 v 15

~~The market · Monarcas win~~63% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monarcas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monarcas win	48%	63%	−15
Draw	30%	21%	+9
CDS Tampico Madero win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	35%	59%	−24
Both teams to score	41%	55%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	63%	79%	−16
Over 3.5 goals	17%	39%	−22
Monarcas or draw	78%	84%	−6
Monarcas clean sheet	45%	–	–
CDS Tampico Madero clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 12.9 9.1 3.9 1 15.1 13.2 5.1 2 10.3 8.2 3.3 3 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monarcas down, CDS Tampico Madero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monarcas at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CDS Tampico Madero away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Monarcas, 0.81 for CDS Tampico Madero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CDS 1–0 MON · MON 0–0 CDS · MON 1–0 CDS · CDS 1–1 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept

MONARCAS

WWWLDD4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

CDS TAMPICO MADERO

WLDLLD4–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7