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Mineros de Zacatecas v Leones Negros UDG

Mineros de Zacatecas

02:00Upcoming

Leones Negros UDG

Liga de Expansión MX · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mineros de ZacatecasDrawLeones Negros UDG

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mineros de Zacatecas 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mineros de Zacatecas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mineros de Zacatecas 50%, draw 24%, Leones Negros UDG 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Mineros de Zacatecas v Leones Negros UDGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mineros de Zacatecas win50%

Draw24%

Leones Negros UDG win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Carlos Vega Villalba

RefereeA. Lopez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mineros de Zacatecas

Leones Negros UDG

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mineros de zacatecas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market47%

Us50%

~~Market~~47%

We make Mineros de Zacatecas a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mineros de Zacatecas v Leones Negros UDG~~1.85 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 24~~9 v 2

~~The market · Mineros de Zacatecas win~~47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mineros de Zacatecas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mineros de Zacatecas win	50%	47%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Leones Negros UDG win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Mineros de Zacatecas or draw	73%	72%	+1
Mineros de Zacatecas clean sheet	27%	–	–
Leones Negros UDG clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.0 5.0 3.7 1 7.4 10.8 6.6 2.9 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.5 5.8 3.7 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mineros de Zacatecas down, Leones Negros UDG across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mineros de Zacatecas at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leones Negros UDG away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Mineros de Zacatecas, 1.31 for Leones Negros UDG. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 1–3 MIN · MIN 2–0 LEO · MIN 0–0 LEO · LEO 3–1 MIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 13 Sept

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS

LWWLDL0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–2

LEONES NEGROS UDG

DLWWDL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 6–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Cancún	14	+8	22
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7