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Mineros de Zacatecas v Cancún

Mineros de Zacatecas

2–2Full time

Cancún

Liga de Expansión MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Cancún MINEROS DE ZACATECAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mineros de Zacatecas win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mineros de Zacatecas win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mineros de Zacatecas was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Mineros de Zacatecas v Cancún
2′Much as we predicted: Mineros de Zacatecas was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' D. Guillen · Cancún
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Mineros de Zacatecas 1–0 Cancún
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Mineros de Zacatecas 1–0 Cancún · J. Cano
22′Mineros de Zacatecas ahead on 22′ through J. Cano. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Mineros de Zacatecas win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Mineros de Zacatecas win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
24′Mineros de Zacatecas ahead on 22′ through J. Cano. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 Cancún · J. Cano
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 Cancún · J. Avila
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Mineros de Zacatecas win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 Cancún
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cancún · On: G. Preciado · Off: D. Guillen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Mineros de Zacatecas win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Alvarez · Cancún
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–1 Cancún · J. Avila
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–1 Cancún · K. Campos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: A. Villalobos · Off: J. Jimenez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: S. Manriquez · Off: W. D. Castro Garcia
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' L. Cervantes · Mineros de Zacatecas
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' K. Campos · Cancún
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Cancún · K. Campos
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Cancún · C. Trejo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cancún · On: L. Lopez · Off: P. Uscanga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: J. Machado · Off: D. Marmolejo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: L. Hernandez · Off: J. Esquivel
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: C. A. Flores Sanchez · Off: L. Cervantes
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cancún · On: C. Salaya De La Cruz · Off: J. Hernandez Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Cancún · On: T. Gigena · Off: J. Cortes
92′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Cancún · On: C. Vela · Off: J. Rodriguez
97′🟨 YELLOW · 95' A. Alvarez · Cancún
FTFULL TIME Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Cancún
FTMineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Cancún · Mineros de Zacatecas win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mineros de Zacatecas win46%

Draw26%

Cancún win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Referee · F. Cruz Garatachea

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mineros de Zacatecas

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Valenzuela

16 J. Esquivel

5 J. Cano

4 D. Marmolejo

23 A. Garcia

30 J. Jimenez

19 K. Magana

2 L. Cervantes

20 W. D. Castro Garcia

10 J. Avila

11 L. Sandoval

Coach · Luis Munoz

Substitutes

12 · L. Hernandez

3 · S. Manriquez

96 · C. A. Flores Sanchez

6 · P. Rios

25 · A. Villalobos

9 · J. Machado

110 · M. Cordero

81 · D. Marin

Cancún

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Arce

3 J. Hernandez

15 D. Guillen

4 R. Reyes

6 J. Cortes

2 A. Alvarez

14 K. Campos

10 P. Uscanga

5 A. Chavez

11 C. Trejo

12 J. Rodriguez

Coach · Angel Bravo Prado Miguel

Substitutes

18 · E. A. Montiel Herrera

17 · L. Lopez

139 · C. Salaya De La Cruz

16 · D. Lomeli

9 · T. Gigena

24 · C. Vela

19 · G. Preciado

27 · G. Gutierrez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mineros de Zacatecas

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Valenzuela

16 J. Esquivel

5 J. Cano

4 D. Marmolejo

23 A. Garcia

30 J. Jimenez

19 K. Magana

2 L. Cervantes

20 W. D. Castro Garcia

10 J. Avila

11 L. Sandoval

Coach · Luis Munoz

Substitutes

12 · L. Hernandez

3 · S. Manriquez

96 · C. A. Flores Sanchez

6 · P. Rios

25 · A. Villalobos

9 · J. Machado

110 · M. Cordero

81 · D. Marin

Cancún

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Arce

3 J. Hernandez

15 D. Guillen

4 R. Reyes

6 J. Cortes

2 A. Alvarez

14 K. Campos

10 P. Uscanga

5 A. Chavez

11 C. Trejo

12 J. Rodriguez

Coach · Angel Bravo Prado Miguel

Substitutes

18 · E. A. Montiel Herrera

17 · L. Lopez

139 · C. Salaya De La Cruz

16 · D. Lomeli

9 · T. Gigena

24 · C. Vela

19 · G. Preciado

27 · G. Gutierrez

Our number · mineros de zacatecas winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Mineros de Zacatecas a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mineros de zacatecas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 46% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mineros de Zacatecas win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Cancún win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Mineros de Zacatecas or draw	72%	70%	+2
Mineros de Zacatecas clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cancún clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 6.7 4.3 1 9.3 12.0 6.8 2.8 2 7.8 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.2 5.0 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mineros de Zacatecas down, Cancún across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mineros de Zacatecas at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cancún away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Mineros de Zacatecas, 1.20 for Cancún. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~CAN 4–1 MIN · MIN 0–0 CAN · MIN 1–1 CAN · CAN 0–0 MIN

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS

WLLWWL2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4

CANCÚN

WDDWLW6–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	12	+13	23
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
3	Monarcas	11	+9	22
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	11	0	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6