Home › Football › Liga de Expansión MX › Leones Negros UDG v Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Leones Negros UDG v Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Leones Negros UDG

1–2Full time

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Liga de Expansión MX · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Jalisco

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Leones Negros UDG 1–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca LEONES NEGROS UDG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leones Negros UDG win~~73%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.362

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leones Negros UDG win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Leones Negros UDG 73% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–17–11
1′KICK-OFF Leones Negros UDG v Alebrijes de Oaxaca
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' K. Alvarez · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
14′14′: J. Brigido on the scoresheet for Leones Negros UDG, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–3
14′13′: J. Brigido on the scoresheet for Leones Negros UDG, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–3
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Leones Negros UDG 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca · J. Brigido
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 89% now
15′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Alebrijes de Oaxaca · On: O. Paz Vasquez · Off: C. Rodas
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
32′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Andrey Marcos · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
43′Alebrijes de Oaxaca level it on 42′ through J. Bustos. 1–1. 1–1 · 59–29–13
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca · J. Bustos (penalty)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 59% now
44′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–1 · 58–29–13
45′HALF-TIME Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
46′SECOND HALF Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' J. Marchand · Leones Negros UDG
51′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' O. Gonzalez · Leones Negros UDG
58′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–38–12
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' U. Meza · Leones Negros UDG
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Alebrijes de Oaxaca · On: A. Vazquez Hernandez · Off: A. Hernandez
64′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 43% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Leones Negros UDG · On: J. Cazares · Off: J. Brigido
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Leones Negros UDG · On: J. Perez · Off: S. A. Hernandez
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' J. Escalante · Leones Negros UDG
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Leones Negros UDG win 40%)
69′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–50–11
72′Andrey Marcos scores for Alebrijes de Oaxaca on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–27–65
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Leones Negros UDG 1–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca · Andrey Marcos
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 8% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 27%)
73′Andrey Marcos scores for Alebrijes de Oaxaca on 71′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–26–66
74′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–26–68
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' P. Villa · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago · Leones Negros UDG
78′We said Leones Negros UDG at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leones Negros UDG · On: K. Loera · Off: O. Gil
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leones Negros UDG · On: A. Carreon · Off: A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Leones Negros UDG win: 73% at kick-off, 3% now
84′Alebrijes de Oaxaca are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 1–14–85
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' E. Sanchez · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Alebrijes de Oaxaca · On: E. Lopez · Off: P. Villa
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Alebrijes de Oaxaca · On: D. Collazo · Off: J. Bustos
95′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Leones Negros UDG · On: M. Nuno · Off: J. Escalante
FTFULL TIME Leones Negros UDG 1–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
FTLeones Negros UDG 1–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca · Leones Negros UDG win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leones Negros UDG are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leones Negros UDG 73%, draw 16%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Leones Negros UDG v Alebrijes de OaxacaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leones Negros UDG win73%

Draw16%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca win10%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Jalisco

RefereeL. A. Garcia Olvera

Line-ups

Leones Negros UDG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leones Negros UDG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

8Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
15	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leones Negros UDG

Formation not confirmed

1 O. M. Cantu Rodriguez

161 J. Escalante

21 O. Gonzalez

27 U. Meza

5 U. Torres

10 J. Brigido

28 A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

6 J. Marchand

34 S. A. Hernandez

20 O. Gil

9 L. Razo

Coach · Alfonso Sosa

Substitutes

12 · S. Martin

3 · L. Flores

33 · L. Sepulveda

15 · A. Carreon

153 · D. Torres

31 · M. Valenzuela

167 · M. Nuno

35 · J. Cazares

11 · J. Perez

19 · K. Loera

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Rodas

15 P. Villa

4 K. Alvarez

27 E. Sanchez

12 J. Reyes

23 A. Hernandez

22 T. Jaimes Rodriguez

177 J. Bustos

20 D. Ayala

11 Andrey Marcos

8 I. Barreda

Coach · Roman Bolanos Fabian Gonzalo

Substitutes

21 · O. Paz Vasquez

14 · A. Vazquez Hernandez

17 · D. Collazo

5 · E. Lopez

18 · J. Gonzalez

26 · M. Carreon

16 · S. Gallinar

19 · B. Fadika

25 · D. Martinez

174 · S. Hernandez

Our number · leones negros udg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market67%

Us73%

~~Market~~67%

We make Leones Negros UDG a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leones Negros UDG v Alebrijes de Oaxaca~~2.59 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 13~~2 v 15

~~The market · Leones Negros UDG win~~67% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leones Negros UDG win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leones Negros UDG win	73%	67%	+6
Draw	16%	19%	−3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca win	10%	14%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	63%	+4
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	42%	+4
Leones Negros UDG or draw	90%	86%	+4
Leones Negros UDG clean sheet	41%	–	–
Alebrijes de Oaxaca clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 3.7 2.5 1 7.8 7.6 3.2 2 10.3 9.0 4.0 3 8.8 7.7 3.4 4 5.7 5.0 2.2 5 3.0 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Leones Negros UDG down, Alebrijes de Oaxaca across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leones Negros UDG at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alebrijes de Oaxaca away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.59 goals for Leones Negros UDG, 0.89 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALE 1–1 LEO · LEO 0–1 ALE · LEO 3–2 ALE · ALE 2–2 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept

LEONES NEGROS UDG

WDLWWD3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 6–3 · 1–1

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA

LWLLLW1–4 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Piratas	13	+7	21
5	Venados FC	13	+5	21
6	Durango	13	+5	21
7	Cancún	13	+4	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
9	Tapatío	13	−2	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14
15	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
16	Tepatitlán	13	−27	7