Durango v Tapatío prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:30

Durango 5–0 Tapatío DURANGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Durango win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Durango win at 43%.
3′KICK-OFF Durango v Tapatío
4′Durango ahead on 2′ through L. Gutierrez. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–17–12
5′We published Durango at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' G. Gutierrez · Tapatío
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' J. Gonzalez · Durango
14′🟨 YELLOW · 9' J. Angulo · Durango
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' D. Delgadillo · Tapatío
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Durango win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
38′We published Durango at 43%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Durango 2–0 Tapatío
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Durango win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
39′J. I. Reyes Olguin scores for Durango on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Durango win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Durango 2–0 Tapatío
45′SECOND HALF Durango 2–0 Tapatío
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: L. Jimenez · Off: J. Uribe
52′We published Durango at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tapatío · On: S. Esparza · Off: G. Gutierrez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tapatío · On: D. Latorre · Off: D. Delgadillo
68′We published Durango at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tapatío · On: L. Ledesma · Off: D. Covarrubias
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Durango 3–0 Tapatío
69′68′: J. Angulo on the scoresheet for Durango, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Cendejas · Tapatío
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Durango · On: J. Torres · Off: J. Angulo
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Durango 4–0 Tapatío
75′Durango ahead on 74′ through an own goal by S. Esparza. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Durango · On: T. Montano · Off: L. Gutierrez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Durango · On: A. Ontiveros · Off: J. Gonzalez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tapatío · On: C. Medina · Off: D. Villaseca
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Durango · On: L. Lorona · Off: A. Escoboza
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Durango · On: A. Garcia · Off: C. Vega Hernandez
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Durango 5–0 Tapatío
90′A. Garcia scores for Durango on 89′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Durango 5–0 Tapatío
FTDurango 5–0 Tapatío · Durango win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Durango are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Durango 43%, draw 27%, Tapatío 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Durango v TapatíoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Durango win43%

Draw27%

Tapatío win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 04:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Francisco Zarco

RefereeD. S. Perez Borja

Line-ups

Durango

Tapatío

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Durango

Tapatío

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 14 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Durango

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Munoz

3 J. Gonzalez

35 S. Flores

4 J. Munoz

21 D. Oteo

5 E. Cantu

17 J. I. Reyes Olguin

30 A. Escoboza

7 L. Gutierrez

6 C. Vega Hernandez

27 J. Angulo

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · A. Pelaez

12 · M. Lozano

2 · A. Garcia

13 · A. Ontiveros

28 · J. Torres

26 · B. Munoz

8 · T. Montano

19 · A. Valenzuela

11 · L. Morales

14 · L. Lorona

Tapatío

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Liceaga

43 R. Parra

63 M. Cendejas

42 D. Delgadillo

58 J. Uribe

196 D. Covarrubias

47 G. Garcia

44 S. Zamora

255 G. Gutierrez

69 D. Villaseca

49 V. Moragrega

Coach · Jose Melendez

Substitutes

61 · A. A. Leyva Cortes

55 · S. Esparza

195 · D. Zamarripa

70 · L. Torres

60 · L. Ledesma

50 · C. Medina

48 · L. Jimenez

54 · R. Nuno

64 · D. Latorre

Our number · durango winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Durango a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Durango v Tapatío~~1.46 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Durango win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Durango win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Tapatío win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Durango or draw	70%	–	–
Durango clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tapatío clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 7.9 4.9 1 10.1 12.7 7.0 2.8 2 7.8 8.7 5.0 3 3.8 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Durango down, Tapatío across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Durango at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tapatío away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Durango, 1.16 for Tapatío. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DUR 2–5 TAP · TAP 3–1 DUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 5 Sept

DURANGO

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–0

TAPATÍO

LLWLLW1–3 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7