Dorados v Piratas prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DoradosDrawPiratas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Piratas 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Piratas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dorados 36%, draw 26%, Piratas 38%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dorados v PiratasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Dorados win36%

Draw26%

Piratas win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio El Encanto

RefereeO. Ortega

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dorados

Piratas

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
11	Dorados	13	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · piratas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market54%

Us38%

~~Market~~54%

We make Piratas a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dorados v Piratas~~1.44 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~11 v 5

~~The market · Piratas win~~54% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Piratas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorados win	36%	23%	+13
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Piratas win	38%	54%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Dorados or draw	62%	46%	+16
Dorados clean sheet	23%	–	–
Piratas clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.3 7.4 5.9 3.0 1 7.2 12.0 8.4 4.2 2 5.6 8.1 6.0 3.0 3 2.7 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorados down, Piratas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Dorados at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Piratas away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Dorados, 1.48 for Piratas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept

DORADOS

DDLLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–6 · 1–3 · 2–1

PIRATAS

DWLWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 2–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Cancún	14	+8	22
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7