Home › Football › Liga de Expansión MX › Dorados v Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Dorados v Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Dorados

1–3Full time

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Liga de Expansión MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio El Encanto

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

Dorados 1–3 Cruz Azul Hidalgo DORADOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dorados win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dorados win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dorados 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–30
2′Little has changed for our model: Dorados 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
21′Cruz Azul Hidalgo ahead on 7′ through B. Gamboa. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–58
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Dorados win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Cruz Azul Hidalgo win 30%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dorados win 19%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
24′Cruz Azul Hidalgo ahead on 7′ through B. Gamboa. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dorados win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Dorados win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Cruz Azul Hidalgo win 30%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' E. Gutierrez · Dorados
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' B. Gamboa · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Dorados 0–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · B. Gamboa
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Dorados 0–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · E. Sanchez
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dorados win 18%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dorados win 18%)
45′SECOND HALF Dorados 0–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dorados · On: L. Vargas · Off: O. Coronel
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dorados · On: D. Guajardo · Off: G. Padilla
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dorados · On: C. Leyva · Off: F. Contreras Corrected
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Dorados win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dorados win 18%)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' D. Guajardo · Dorados
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dorados · On: B. Ordorica · Off: F. Contreras
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: C. Valdivia · Off: K. Gonzalez Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: J. Diaz · Off: A. A. Saavedra Nevarez Corrected
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dorados 0–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · F. Pena
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dorados 1–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · F. Pena
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dorados 1–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · F. Pena (assist S. Cervantes)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dorados · On: B. Sanchez · Off: D. Guajardo Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: C. Leon · Off: I. Ramirez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: E. Villegas · Off: B. Gamboa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' E. Sanchez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' B. Ordorica · Dorados
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Dorados 1–2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · C. Valdivia
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Dorados 1–3 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · C. Valdivia
97′🟨 YELLOW · 98' C. Castro · Dorados
FTFULL TIME Dorados 1–3 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
FTDorados 1–3 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · Dorados win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dorados win45%

Draw25%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Estadio El Encanto

Referee · A. Torres Favela

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dorados

Formation not confirmed

21 J. Castro

20 D. Osuna

4 R. Franco

26 E. Gutierrez

32 C. Castro

18 S. Cervantes

11 F. Contreras

13 G. Padilla

17 F. Pena

29 O. Coronel

9 J. Rengifo

Coach · Luis Orozco

Substitutes

6 · D. Guajardo

28 · B. Ordorica

15 · C. Leyva

10 · L. Vargas

23 · B. Sanchez

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Rodriguez

70 I. Silva

67 J. Mendoza

66 J. Suarez

47 S. De Los Rios

50 K. Gonzalez

58 E. Sanchez

57 D. Valdez

63 A. A. Saavedra Nevarez

196 I. Ramírez

27 B. Gamboa

Coach · Esteban Landazabal

Substitutes

61 · B. Salgado

49 · J. Diaz

222 · E. Villegas

53 · V. Taboada

68 · C. Valdivia

44 · C. Leon

62 · E. Rodriguez

25 · F. Samano Salgado

56 · J. Montes

258 · E. Castaneda

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dorados

Formation not confirmed

21 J. Castro

20 D. Osuna

4 R. Franco

26 E. Gutierrez

32 C. Castro

18 S. Cervantes

11 F. Contreras

13 G. Padilla

17 F. Pena

29 O. Coronel

9 J. Rengifo

Coach · Luis Orozco

Substitutes

6 · D. Guajardo

28 · B. Ordorica

15 · C. Leyva

10 · L. Vargas

23 · B. Sanchez

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Rodriguez

70 I. Silva

67 J. Mendoza

66 J. Suarez

47 S. De Los Rios

50 K. Gonzalez

58 E. Sanchez

57 D. Valdez

63 A. A. Saavedra Nevarez

196 I. Ramírez

27 B. Gamboa

Coach · Esteban Landazabal

Substitutes

61 · B. Salgado

49 · J. Diaz

222 · E. Villegas

53 · V. Taboada

68 · C. Valdivia

44 · C. Leon

62 · E. Rodriguez

25 · F. Samano Salgado

56 · J. Montes

258 · E. Castaneda

Our number · dorados winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Dorados a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorados win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Dorados or draw	70%	–	–
Dorados clean sheet	28%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 6.4 4.5 1 8.3 11.7 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorados down, Cruz Azul Hidalgo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dorados at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul Hidalgo away: 0.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Dorados, 1.29 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX

DORADOS

WWDDLL4–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–6

CRUZ AZUL HIDALGO

WLDLLD6–0 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	12	+13	23
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	+11	23
3	Monarcas	11	+9	22
4	Venados FC	11	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	+4	17
8	Durango	11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
10	Tapatío	11	0	14
11	Dorados	11	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	−4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	−7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	−7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	−21	6