Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Tlaxcala prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cruz Azul HidalgoDrawTlaxcala

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul Hidalgo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 55%, draw 24%, Tlaxcala 22%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Cruz Azul Hidalgo v TlaxcalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cruz Azul Hidalgo win55%

Draw24%

Tlaxcala win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:45

RoundApertura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio 10 de Diciembre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Tlaxcala

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cruz azul hidalgo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Cruz Azul Hidalgo a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Tlaxcala~~1.89 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~15 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Tlaxcala win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw	78%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo clean sheet	33%	–	–
Tlaxcala clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.8 5.0 3.1 1 8.9 11.0 5.7 2.1 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 5.6 6.1 3.4 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruz Azul Hidalgo down, Tlaxcala across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tlaxcala away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Cruz Azul Hidalgo, 1.11 for Tlaxcala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept

CRUZ AZUL HIDALGO

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

TLAXCALA

WLWDWD3–1 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Venados FC	14	+6	24
4	Monarcas	13	+8	23
5	Cancún	14	+8	22
6	Piratas	13	+7	21
7	Durango	14	+4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7