Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas CRUZ AZUL HIDALGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo win~~45%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.462

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cruz Azul Hidalgo win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas
7′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1–0 Mineros de Zacatecas
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
8′A. A. Saavedra Nevarez scores for Cruz Azul Hidalgo on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–17–13
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' L. Hernandez · Mineros de Zacatecas
42′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–0 Mineros de Zacatecas
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
43′42′: I. Ramirez on the scoresheet for Cruz Azul Hidalgo, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
44′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 73–19–8
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
45′Mineros de Zacatecas pull one back on 44′ through K. Magana. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas
45′SECOND HALF Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas
51′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' J. Avila · Mineros de Zacatecas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: J. Jimenez · Off: W. D. Castro Garcia
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: F. Samano Salgado · Off: A. A. Saavedra Nevarez Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: J. Montes · Off: D. Valdez Corrected
66′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: J. Montes · Off: D. Valdez Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: C. A. Flores Sanchez · Off: L. Cervantes
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: M. Perez · Off: P. Padilla
75′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: C. Valdivia · Off: E. Sanchez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: C. Leon · Off: K. Gonzalez
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' M. Perez · Mineros de Zacatecas
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: A. Villalobos · Off: L. Hernandez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Mineros de Zacatecas · On: P. Rios · Off: K. Magana
88′We said Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′2–1 at the end. Our 45% on Cruz Azul Hidalgo comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: E. Rodriguez · Off: B. Gamboa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' A. Garcia · Mineros de Zacatecas
FTFULL TIME Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas
FTCruz Azul Hidalgo 2–1 Mineros de Zacatecas · Cruz Azul Hidalgo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul Hidalgo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 45%, draw 25%, Mineros de Zacatecas 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de ZacatecasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cruz Azul Hidalgo win45%

Draw25%

Mineros de Zacatecas win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio 10 de Diciembre

RefereeE. Miranda

Line-ups

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Mineros de Zacatecas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Mineros de Zacatecas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	+4	18
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Formation not confirmed

30 E. Ochoa

66 J. Suarez

67 J. Mendoza

28 R. Rubio

47 S. De Los Rios

50 K. Gonzalez

63 A. A. Saavedra Nevarez

58 E. Sanchez

196 I. Ramírez

57 D. Valdez

27 B. Gamboa

Coach · Esteban Landazabal

Substitutes

13 · R. Rodriguez

49 · J. Diaz

222 · E. Villegas

53 · V. Taboada

68 · C. Valdivia

44 · C. Leon

62 · E. Rodriguez

70 · I. Silva

25 · F. Samano Salgado

56 · J. Montes

Mineros de Zacatecas

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Valenzuela

16 J. Esquivel

12 L. Hernandez

5 J. Cano

23 A. Garcia

20 W. D. Castro Garcia

2 L. Cervantes

19 K. Magana

11 L. Sandoval

10 J. Avila

24 P. Padilla

Coach · Luis Munoz

Substitutes

1 · L. Duran

3 · S. Manriquez

4 · D. Marmolejo

14 · O. Mazatan

96 · C. A. Flores Sanchez

6 · P. Rios

25 · A. Villalobos

9 · J. Machado

30 · J. Jimenez

13 · M. Perez

Our number · cruz azul hidalgo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 16:52 · locked at kick-off

45% The market33%

Us45%

~~Market~~33%

We make Cruz Azul Hidalgo a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas~~1.64 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~15 v 5

~~The market · Cruz Azul Hidalgo win~~33% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruz Azul Hidalgo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win	45%	33%	+12
Draw	25%	25%	0
Mineros de Zacatecas win	30%	42%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	63%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw	70%	58%	+12
Cruz Azul Hidalgo clean sheet	27%	–	–
Mineros de Zacatecas clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 6.3 4.5 1 8.1 11.8 7.2 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.9 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruz Azul Hidalgo down, Mineros de Zacatecas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Mineros de Zacatecas away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Cruz Azul Hidalgo, 1.31 for Mineros de Zacatecas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 5 Sept

CRUZ AZUL HIDALGO

LDLLDW0–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS

LLWWLD0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	+5	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	+4	18
6	Cancún	12	+4	18
7	Piratas	12	+4	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
14	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	−5	11
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7