Correcaminos Uat v Venados FC prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Correcaminos UatDrawVenados FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Venados FC 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Venados FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Correcaminos Uat 37%, draw 22%, Venados FC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Correcaminos Uat v Venados FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Correcaminos Uat win37%

Draw22%

Venados FC win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Correcaminos Uat

Venados FC

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Venados FC	14	+6	24
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · venados fc winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Venados FC a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Correcaminos Uat v Venados FC~~1.80 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 24~~11 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Correcaminos Uat win	37%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Venados FC win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Correcaminos Uat or draw	60%	–	–
Correcaminos Uat clean sheet	16%	–	–
Venados FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 4.3 4.5 2.8 1 4.2 9.0 7.8 4.9 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.9 4.4 2.1 3 2.5 4.5 4.2 2.6 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Correcaminos Uat down, Venados FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Correcaminos Uat at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Venados FC away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Correcaminos Uat, 1.89 for Venados FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VEN 0–1 COR · COR 3–6 VEN · COR 1–1 VEN · VEN 5–1 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept

CORRECAMINOS UAT

DLWDLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

VENADOS FC

LWWDDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	14	+15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	+12	27
3	Piratas	14	+12	24
4	Venados FC	14	+6	24
5	Monarcas	13	+8	23
6	Cancún	14	+8	22
7	Durango	14	+4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	+1	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Dorados	14	−6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	−8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7