Correcaminos Uat v Dorados prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

Correcaminos Uat 1–2 Dorados CORRECAMINOS UAT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Correcaminos Uat win~~54%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.962

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Correcaminos Uat win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Correcaminos Uat was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Correcaminos Uat v Dorados
10′F. Pena scores for Dorados on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–22–48
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Correcaminos Uat 0–1 Dorados · F. Pena (penalty)
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 30% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Dorados win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Correcaminos Uat win 30%)
11′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–22–48
12′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–23–48
28′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–51
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 23–25–52
41′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
41′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Dorados · On: L. Vargas · Off: J. Rengifo
45′HALF-TIME Correcaminos Uat 0–1 Dorados
45′SECOND HALF Correcaminos Uat 0–1 Dorados
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Correcaminos Uat · On: O. Islas · Off: W. Guzman
53′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' J. Castro · Dorados
62′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–45–20
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Correcaminos Uat 1–1 Dorados
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 35% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Dorados win 20%)
64′62′: E. Torres on the scoresheet for Correcaminos Uat, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–47–19
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Correcaminos Uat · On: J. Cantu · Off: R. Arce
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Correcaminos Uat · On: T. Sandoval · Off: D. Mina
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' G. Padilla · Dorados
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dorados · On: J. Alvarez · Off: M. Flores
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dorados · On: B. Sanchez · Off: F. Contreras
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Correcaminos Uat · On: J. Estopier · Off: W. Ortega
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Correcaminos Uat · On: N. Gomez Del Rosal · Off: Y. Uribe
87′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. Flores · Dorados
93′We said Correcaminos Uat at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–2
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Correcaminos Uat win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' G. Moreno · Correcaminos Uat
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Correcaminos Uat 1–2 Dorados
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Dorados win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
97′Dorados ahead on 90′ through B. Ordorica. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Dorados · On: B. Ordorica · Off: G. Padilla Corrected
FTFULL TIME Correcaminos Uat 1–2 Dorados
FTCorrecaminos Uat 1–2 Dorados · Correcaminos Uat win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Correcaminos Uat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Correcaminos Uat 54%, draw 22%, Dorados 24%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Correcaminos Uat v DoradosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Correcaminos Uat win54%

Draw22%

Dorados win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

RefereeE. L. Sanchez M.

Line-ups

Correcaminos Uat

Dorados

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Correcaminos Uat

Dorados

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
12	Dorados	12	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Correcaminos Uat

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Perez

2 W. Ortega

13 G. Moreno

5 A. Monarrez

19 A. Catalan

11 Y. Uribe

8 D. Torres

33 D. Mina

10 W. Guzman

25 E. Torres

28 R. Arce

Coach · Gabriel Pereyra

Substitutes

82 · I. P. Garcia Gonzalez

22 · A. Di Pippa

23 · R. Gonzalez

14 · C. Sosa

27 · J. Cantu

20 · J. Estopier

7 · O. Islas

12 · N. Gomez Del Rosal

32 · T. Sandoval

88 · D. Barron

Dorados

Formation not confirmed

21 J. Castro

20 D. Osuna

22 W. Gonzalez Rodriguez

32 C. Castro

18 S. Cervantes

5 A. Flores

27 M. Flores

13 G. Padilla

11 F. Contreras

17 F. Pena

9 J. Rengifo

Coach · Luis Orozco

Substitutes

34 · I. Flores

28 · B. Ordorica

15 · C. Leyva

7 · J. Alvarez

10 · L. Vargas

23 · B. Sanchez

35 · J. Porozo

Our number · correcaminos uat winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

54% The market55%

Us54%

~~Market~~55%

We make Correcaminos Uat a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Correcaminos Uat v Dorados~~2.07 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~10 v 12

~~The market · Correcaminos Uat win~~55% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Correcaminos Uat win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Correcaminos Uat win	54%	55%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Dorados win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Correcaminos Uat or draw	76%	78%	−2
Correcaminos Uat clean sheet	27%	–	–
Dorados clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 4.0 3.0 1 6.6 9.7 6.0 2.7 2 7.2 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.9 6.4 4.2 4 2.6 3.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Correcaminos Uat down, Dorados across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Correcaminos Uat at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dorados away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Correcaminos Uat, 1.33 for Dorados. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DOR 2–1 COR · COR 1–0 DOR · COR 3–1 DOR · DOR 3–1 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 6 Sept

CORRECAMINOS UAT

LDLWDL1–4 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

DORADOS

WDDLLL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–6 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leones Negros UDG	12	+11	24
2	CA La Paz	12	+13	23
3	Monarcas	12	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	+5	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	+4	18
6	Cancún	12	+4	18
7	Piratas	12	+4	18
8	Durango	12	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	+3	17
10	Correcaminos Uat	12	0	16
11	Tlaxcala	12	−2	15
12	Dorados	12	−2	13
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	−13	13
14	CDS Tampico Madero	12	−7	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	−5	11
16	Tepatitlán	12	−24	7