CDS Tampico Madero v CA La Paz prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CDS Tampico MaderoDrawCA La Paz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CDS Tampico Madero 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CDS Tampico Madero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CDS Tampico Madero 51%, draw 26%, CA La Paz 23%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on CDS Tampico Madero v CA La PazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CDS Tampico Madero win51%

Draw26%

CA La Paz win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Tamaulipas

RefereeE. H. Armenta J.

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CDS Tampico Madero

CA La Paz

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cds tampico madero winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market37%

Us51%

~~Market~~37%

We make CDS Tampico Madero a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CDS Tampico Madero v CA La Paz~~1.68 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 24~~14 v 1

~~The market · CDS Tampico Madero win~~37% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CDS Tampico Madero win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CDS Tampico Madero win	51%	37%	+14
Draw	26%	26%	0
CA La Paz win	23%	38%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	64%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
CDS Tampico Madero or draw	77%	62%	+15
CDS Tampico Madero clean sheet	35%	–	–
CA La Paz clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 6.3 3.7 1 10.3 12.1 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.5 5.0 3 5.1 5.3 2.8 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CDS Tampico Madero down, CA La Paz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CDS Tampico Madero at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CA La Paz away: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for CDS Tampico Madero, 1.06 for CA La Paz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAL 1–2 CDS · CDS 2–0 CAL · CAL 1–1 CDS · CDS 3–2 CAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 12 Sept

CDS TAMPICO MADERO

LDLLDW1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

CA LA PAZ

DWWLWD2–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Cancún	14	+8	22
5	Piratas	13	+7	21
6	Venados FC	13	+5	21
7	Durango	13	+5	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7