Cancún v Venados FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cancún win at 56%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cancún 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
3. 1′KICK-OFF Cancún v Venados FC
4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' K. Amador · Venados FC
5. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' I. Dominguez · Venados FC
6. 37′Cancún ahead on 34′ through J. Cortes. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–6
7. 37′We said Cancún at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–6
8. 37′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–6
9. 37′⚽ GOAL · 34' Cancún 1–0 Venados FC · J. Cortes (assist K. Campos)
10. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Cancún win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
11. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Venados FC · On: A. Dominguez · Off: K. Amador
12. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 42' S. Montiel · Venados FC
13. 45′HALF-TIME Cancún 1–0 Venados FC
14. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cancún · On: L. Lopez · Off: P. Uscanga
15. 48′SECOND HALF Cancún 1–0 Venados FC
16. 55′We said Cancún at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
17. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Venados FC · On: M. Torres · Off: M. Aguilar
18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cancún · On: F. Melendre · Off: J. Cortes
19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cancún · On: G. Preciado · Off: K. Campos
20. 72′We said Cancún at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
21. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' A. Chavez · Cancún
22. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Cancún win: 56% at kick-off, 87% now
23. 80′We said Cancún at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
24. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Venados FC · On: E. Torres · Off: S. Montiel
25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Venados FC · On: J. Canto · Off: D. Tejeda
26. 82′Cancún are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 91–8–0
27. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' A. Chavez · Cancún
28. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 80' A. Chavez · Cancún
29. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' C. Trejo · Cancún
30. 87′A second red card for Cancún on 85′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 95–5–0
31. 87′We said Cancún at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
32. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' E. Arce · Cancún
33. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Cancún win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
34. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cancún · On: T. Gigena · Off: J. Rodriguez
35. 92′Cancún are down to eight from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 97–3–0
36. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' M. Bravo · Cancún
37. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cancún · On: C. Vela · Off: L. Ruiz
38. 95′S. Lora scores for Venados FC on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–96–1
39. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Cancún 1–1 Venados FC · S. Lora
40. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Cancún win: 56% at kick-off, 2% now
41. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Cancún win 2%)
42. 96′We said Cancún at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–96–1
43. FTFULL TIME Cancún 1–1 Venados FC
44. FTCancún 1–1 Venados FC · Cancún win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.