CA La Paz v Tlaxcala

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CA La Paz win at 63%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: CA La Paz 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–18
3. 1′KICK-OFF CA La Paz v Tlaxcala
4. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 7' M. Ramirez · Tlaxcala
5. 18′D. Alvarez scores for Tlaxcala on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–24–41
6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' CA La Paz 0–1 Tlaxcala · D. Alvarez
7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 35% now
8. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Tlaxcala win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CA La Paz win 35%)
9. 19′D. Alvarez scores for Tlaxcala on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–24–41
10. 20′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–24–42
11. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
12. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' F. Illescas · CA La Paz
13. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 30–26–44
14. 31′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
15. 32′31′: A. Robles on the scoresheet for CA La Paz, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 55–26–19
16. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' CA La Paz 1–1 Tlaxcala · A. Robles
17. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 55% now
18. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' CA La Paz win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tlaxcala win 19%)
19. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' A. Robles · CA La Paz
20. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' C. Robles · CA La Paz
21. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' E. Robles · Tlaxcala
22. 42′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 1–1 · 51–30–19
23. 42′Tlaxcala ahead on 39′ through E. Robles. 1–2. 1–2 · 24–27–49
24. 42′⚽ GOAL · 39' CA La Paz 1–2 Tlaxcala · E. Robles (assist E. Garcia)
25. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 24% now
26. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Tlaxcala win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CA La Paz win 24%)
27. 43′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
28. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
29. 45′HALF-TIME CA La Paz 1–2 Tlaxcala
30. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CA La Paz · On: O. Millan · Off: U. Jaimes
31. 46′SECOND HALF CA La Paz 1–2 Tlaxcala
32. 51′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
33. 54′M. Barragan scores for CA La Paz on 53′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 46–36–18
34. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' CA La Paz 2–2 Tlaxcala · M. Barragan (penalty)
35. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 46% now
36. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' CA La Paz win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tlaxcala win 18%)
37. 55′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 2–2 · 45–37–18
38. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CA La Paz · On: J. Ferrer · Off: U. Zurita Jimenez Corrected
39. 56′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–38–18
40. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CA La Paz · On: J. Ferrer · Off: M. Garcia
41. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' J. Freyfeld · Tlaxcala
42. 57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 44–39–18
43. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tlaxcala · On: Christian · Off: E. Hernandez
44. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tlaxcala · On: C. Gonzalez · Off: M. Ramirez
45. 64′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–45–16
46. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was CA La Paz win 39%)
47. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
48. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tlaxcala · On: R. E. Camacho Lastra · Off: D. Alvarez
49. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tlaxcala · On: D. Hernandez · Off: A. Iniestra
50. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tlaxcala · On: F. Plascencia · Off: I. Govea
51. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 22% now
52. 79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' M. A. Trejo Castro · Tlaxcala
53. 80′Tlaxcala are down to ten from 79′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 21–70–10
54. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' D. Hernandez · Tlaxcala
55. 84′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–80–7
56. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
57. 88′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–5
58. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 57' CA La Paz · On: I. Larios · Off: M. Garcia Corrected
59. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' CA La Paz · On: R. Renteria · Off: M. Barragan Corrected
60. 93′We said CA La Paz at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
61. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' CA La Paz win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
62. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' E. Torres · CA La Paz
63. FTFULL TIME CA La Paz 2–2 Tlaxcala
64. FTCA La Paz 2–2 Tlaxcala · CA La Paz win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.