CA La Paz v Dorados prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CA La PazDrawDorados

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 03:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CA La Paz 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CA La Paz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CA La Paz 66%, draw 18%, Dorados 16%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on CA La Paz v DoradosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

CA La Paz win66%

Draw18%

Dorados win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Guaycura

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CA La Paz

Dorados

6Days since last match6

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ca la paz winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make CA La Paz a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CA La Paz v Dorados~~2.55 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 16~~1 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA La Paz win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Dorados win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
CA La Paz or draw	84%	–	–
CA La Paz clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dorados clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.0 2.5 1 5.8 7.7 4.3 2 7.7 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 6.5 7.6 4.5 4 4.1 4.8 2.9 5 2.2 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA La Paz down, Dorados across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA La Paz at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dorados away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for CA La Paz, 1.19 for Dorados. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DOR 2–2 CAL · CAL 3–1 DOR · CAL 0–0 DOR · DOR 4–0 CAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 19 Sept

CA LA PAZ

WWLWDW3–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

DORADOS

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 3–6 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	14	+15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	+12	27
3	Piratas	14	+12	24
4	Venados FC	14	+6	24
5	Monarcas	13	+8	23
6	Cancún	14	+8	22
7	Durango	14	+4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	+1	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Dorados	14	−6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	−8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7