Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Mineros de Zacatecas prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alebrijes de OaxacaDrawMineros de Zacatecas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mineros de Zacatecas 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mineros de Zacatecas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 34%, draw 25%, Mineros de Zacatecas 41%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Mineros de ZacatecasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Alebrijes de Oaxaca win34%

Draw25%

Mineros de Zacatecas win41%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Mineros de Zacatecas

7Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mineros de zacatecas winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Mineros de Zacatecas a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Mineros de Zacatecas~~1.47 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alebrijes de Oaxaca win	34%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Mineros de Zacatecas win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw	59%	–	–
Alebrijes de Oaxaca clean sheet	20%	–	–
Mineros de Zacatecas clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.3 6.8 6.0 3.3 1 6.1 11.3 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.8 6.2 3.4 3 2.4 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alebrijes de Oaxaca down, Mineros de Zacatecas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mineros de Zacatecas away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, 1.63 for Mineros de Zacatecas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALE 2–0 MIN · MIN 2–2 ALE · ALE 0–1 MIN · MIN 3–0 ALE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 19 Sept

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA

LLLWWW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS

WWLDLL1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Venados FC	14	+6	24
4	Monarcas	13	+8	23
5	Cancún	14	+8	22
6	Piratas	13	+7	21
7	Durango	14	+4	21
8	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	−11	19
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
10	Tapatío	13	−2	17
11	Dorados	13	−1	16
12	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
13	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	−5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	−31	7