Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Cruz Azul Hidalgo prediction · Liga de Expansión MX

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 04:35

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alebrijes de Oaxaca win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alebrijes de Oaxaca win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
1′KICK-OFF Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Cruz Azul Hidalgo
13′We said Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
15′13′: J. Bustos on the scoresheet for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' R. Rubio · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' J. Bustos · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
33′Cruz Azul Hidalgo are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 68–21–11
33′🟥 RED CARD · 33' B. Gamboa · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
43′We said Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
45′SECOND HALF Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' J. Suarez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: F. Samano Salgado · Off: A. A. Saavedra Nevarez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: J. Diaz · Off: R. Rubio
64′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cruz Azul Hidalgo · On: I. Silva · Off: E. Sanchez Corrected
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 23% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 78%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Alebrijes de Oaxaca win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
FTAlebrijes de Oaxaca 2–1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo · Alebrijes de Oaxaca win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Alebrijes de Oaxaca just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 38%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul Hidalgo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Cruz Azul HidalgoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Alebrijes de Oaxaca win38%

Draw26%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	13	−12	16
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alebrijes de oaxaca winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Cruz Azul Hidalgo~~1.45 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~13 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alebrijes de Oaxaca win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alebrijes de Oaxaca win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw	64%	–	–
Alebrijes de Oaxaca clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cruz Azul Hidalgo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.7 7.5 5.7 2.7 1 7.8 12.3 8.0 3.8 2 6.2 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alebrijes de Oaxaca down, Cruz Azul Hidalgo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 Liga de Expansión MX matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Expansión MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul Hidalgo away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, 1.39 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Expansión MX this season · since 11 Sept

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA

WLLLWW1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–1

CRUZ AZUL HIDALGO

DLLDWW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CA La Paz	13	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	+10	24
3	Monarcas	13	+8	23
4	Piratas	13	+7	21
5	Venados FC	13	+5	21
6	Durango	13	+5	21
7	Cancún	13	+4	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	+3	18
9	Tapatío	13	−2	17
10	Dorados	13	−1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	−1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	−2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	13	−12	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	−6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	−4	14
16	Tepatitlán	13	−27	7