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Model 1.2

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Pompiers v Tevragh-Zeïne

Pompiers
1–1Full time
Tevragh-Zeïne

Premier League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:01
Pompiers 1–1 Tevragh-Zeïne TEVRAGH-ZEÏNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Tevragh-Zeïne win35%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.677
The market’s Brier score0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tevragh-Zeïne win at 35%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tevragh-Zeïne 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 32–33–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Pompiers v Tevragh-Zeïne
  4. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tevragh-Zeïne win 35%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Pompiers 0–0 Tevragh-Zeïne
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Pompiers 0–0 Tevragh-Zeïne
  7. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Tevragh-Zeïne win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
  8. 59′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 22–55–23
  9. 68′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
  10. 72′A goal for Tevragh-Zeïne on 71′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  11. 72′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  12. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Pompiers 0–1 Tevragh-Zeïne
  13. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Tevragh-Zeïne win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
  14. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Tevragh-Zeïne win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 67%)
  15. 80′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  16. 81′Pompiers score on 81′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 9–81–10
  17. 81′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 9–81–10
  18. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Pompiers 1–1 Tevragh-Zeïne
  19. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Tevragh-Zeïne win: 35% at kick-off, 10% now
  20. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Tevragh-Zeïne win 91%)
  21. 82′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  22. 82′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  23. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Tevragh-Zeïne win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
  24. 89′We said Tevragh-Zeïne at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  25. FTFULL TIME Pompiers 1–1 Tevragh-Zeïne
  26. FTPompiers 1–1 Tevragh-Zeïne · Tevragh-Zeïne win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tevragh-Zeïne just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pompiers 32%, draw 33%, Tevragh-Zeïne 35%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Pompiers v Tevragh-ZeïneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Pompiers win32%
Draw33%
Tevragh-Zeïne win35%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pompiers

Tevragh-Zeïne

10Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Pompiers1+33
10Tevragh-Zeïne101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tevragh-zeïne winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
35% The market26%
Us35%
Market26%

We make Tevragh-Zeïne a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pompiers v Tevragh-Zeïne1.05 – 1.12
Form · Premier League this season · since 10 OctW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
Table places · points 3 v 13 v 10
The market · Tevragh-Zeïne win26% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 18:09
Our probability · Tevragh-Zeïne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pompiers win32%45%−13
Draw33%29%+4
Tevragh-Zeïne win35%26%+9
Over 2.5 goals37%39%−2
Both teams to score45%46%−1
Over 1.5 goals65%65%0
Over 3.5 goals18%20%−2
Pompiers or draw65%74%−9
Pompiers clean sheet33%––
Tevragh-Zeïne clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%
0123450 13.4 10.9 7.1 2.7 1 10.2 15.0 7.3 2.8 2 6.4 7.0 3.9 3 2.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pompiers down, Tevragh-Zeïne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.17
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsTEV 1–1 POM · POM 1–0 TEV · POM 1–1 TEV · TEV 3–0 POM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

POMPIERS

W3–0

TEVRAGH-ZEÏNE

D0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1N'Zidane2+24
2Police2+24
3Pompiers1+33
4Gendrim1+13
5Armée202
6SNIM101
7Chemal101
8Nouadhibou101
9Nouakchott Academie101
10Tevragh-Zeïne101
11Nouakchott King's2−21
12Kaédi2−21
13Kédia2−31
14AC Douane1−10

The competition's standings before kick-off.