Police v Kaédi prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Police 2–0 Kaédi POLICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Police win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Police win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Police v Kaédi
2′Little has changed for our model: Police 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Police win 37%)
40′We said Police at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Police 1–0 Kaédi
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Police win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Police win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 42%)
41′Police score on 40′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Police 1–0 Kaédi
46′SECOND HALF Police 1–0 Kaédi
57′We said Police at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Police win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
69′Police find the net on 69′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Police 2–0 Kaédi
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Police win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
70′We said Police at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
80′We said Police at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Police 2–0 Kaédi
FTPolice 2–0 Kaédi · Police win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Police are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Police 41%, draw 32%, Kaédi 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Police v KaédiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Police win41%

Draw32%

Kaédi win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police

Kaédi

7Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kaédi	1	0	1
10	Police	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Police a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police v Kaédi~~1.27 – 0.99

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police win	41%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Kaédi win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Police or draw	73%	–	–
Police clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kaédi clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 12.5 8.7 5.1 1 11.5 14.7 6.4 2.1 2 8.4 8.1 4.0 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, Kaédi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,152 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kaédi away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Police, 0.99 for Kaédi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POL 0–1 KAE · KAE 0–4 POL · POL 0–1 KAE · KAE 0–0 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

POLICE

D0–0

KAÉDI

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	N'Zidane	2	+2	4
2	Pompiers	1	+3	3
3	Gendrim	1	+1	3
4	SNIM	1	0	1
5	Armée	1	0	1
6	Chemal	1	0	1
7	Kaédi	1	0	1
8	Nouadhibou	1	0	1
9	Nouakchott Academie	1	0	1
10	Police	1	0	1
11	Tevragh-Zeïne	1	0	1
12	Nouakchott King's	2	−2	1
13	AC Douane	1	−1	0
14	Kédia	1	−3	0