Nouakchott King's v SNIM prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Nouakchott King's 1–1 SNIM NOUAKCHOTT KING'S WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nouakchott King's win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.718

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nouakchott King's win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nouakchott King's was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–27
10′Much as we predicted: Nouakchott King's was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–27
31′19′ and it is 0–1: SNIM have scored. 0–1 · 13–25–62
39′19′ and it is 0–1: SNIM have scored. 0–1 · 11–25–64
45′Nouakchott King's find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–22
52′We said Nouakchott King's at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–48–21
54′We said Nouakchott King's at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–49–20
56′We said Nouakchott King's at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Nouakchott King's win 30%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Nouakchott King's win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Nouakchott King's win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Nouakchott King's win 30%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Nouakchott King's win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Nouakchott King's win 30%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Nouakchott King's win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Nouakchott King's win 30%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Nouakchott King's win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Nouakchott King's win 30%)
FTFULL TIME Nouakchott King's 1–1 SNIM
FTNouakchott King's 1–1 SNIM · Nouakchott King's win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Nouakchott King's win43%

Draw32%

SNIM win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:50

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nouakchott King's

SNIM

141Days since last match140

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nouakchott king's winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Nouakchott King's a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nouakchott king's win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nouakchott King's win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	32%	30%	+2
SNIM win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	22%	−3
Nouakchott King's or draw	75%	70%	+5
Nouakchott King's clean sheet	39%	–	–
SNIM clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.7 8.5 4.8 1 12.3 14.5 6.0 2 8.9 8.3 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nouakchott King's down, SNIM across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nouakchott King's at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SNIM away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Nouakchott King's, 0.94 for SNIM. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.